Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefings…. (945am CT-Tues/12May2015)

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #12
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
945am CT – Tuesday / 12 May 2015

…. Flash Flood Watch Continues and Has Been Extended Until 7pm Wednesday ….

Not much to talk about this morning.. it’s been a relatively quiet past 12 to 18 hours
for the IH35 corridor counties.

Make mo mistake, though, that our atmosphere is very moist and unstable. A weak
cold front has now pulled up stationary west-to-east along the IH10 corridor to our
south and southeast. The atmosphere overhead is more than capable, as disturbed by
atmospheric lift associated with passing upper air low pressure disturbances, to
produce heavy rainfall/high rainfall rates. In areas where we’ve seen heavy rains
over the past seven days, flood problems will crop up rapidly. As a result, although
it’s quiet at the moment, we must remain weather aware and continuously monitor
Doppler weather radar data and, of course, the latest information from the
NWS/Austin-San Antonio.

Over the long range, NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance this morning
suggests up to 3 to 5 inches through the next seven days over our area. I expect that,
in general, most areas will receive 1 to 2 inches through the remainder of the week with
those isolated totals to 3 to 5 inches.

Even longer into the future, I think it’s worth noting that the European Center
model (ECMWF) point statistics data from last evening suggests a wet weather pattern
for Austin is here to stay all the way through the 10 day model forecast period ahead
(through next Thursday night/21 May) with the model predicting 7.08 inches of rain
locally for the period.

For the short range, high resolution models suggest scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms developing across our area today into tonight.

The risk of severe weather (hail, thunderstorm winds and tornadoes) has decreased now
with the threat for now being heavier rain and potential flooding.

Always remember.. with any thunderstorm.. comes the danger of deadly cloud-to-ground

Continuing to monitor… tk