Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

The Unsettled Weather Pattern Continues (Fr/02Sep2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 02 September 2022

 

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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Threat with Thunderstorms Today Through Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) An unstable air mass continues overhead as a moist and tropical air mass off the gulf moves ashore of the Texas coast in combination with upward lift associated with passing weak disturbances overhead. In addition, a south southwestward moving “back door” cold front will be moving into Texas into the weekend and will settle southwestward as it weakens and washes out. As a result, we continue to see the rain and thunderstorm chances continuing through the balance of the week through the weekend and even into early next week including Labor Day. Periods of heavier rain are possible particularly tomorrow through Labor Day.

(2) Although my confidence is not the highest, there appears to be a slight stabilization of the air mass indicated once we get into the middle part of next week. While I will be cautious in reducing rain chances too much, I will still bring the rain chances down a bit with a little more sunshine each day.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of
1.00 to 2.00 inches over our area over the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A medium to high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 02 September 2022

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 93. Calm wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. Low 75. Light easterly wind becoming calm.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 89. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain before 8pm and a 40% after 9pm at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light easterly wind becoming calm.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.50 to 1.00 inch. High 90. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light wind.

MONDAY /LABOR DAY/…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 89. Calm wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 90. Calm wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 74. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 91. Calm wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 09 September through Thursday / 15 September 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 Sep)………………………………………… 7:08 am
Sunset this evening (02 Sep)………………………………………….. 7:52 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 Sep)…………………………………………….. 7:09 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 Sep)……………………………………………… 7:51 pm