Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Some Changes in the Forecast Going into the Weekend (9a, Fr/04Dec2020)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 04 December 2020 ….

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) High pressure from the western USA and Canada continues to dominate Texas with abundant sunshine and below average temperatures continuing.

(2) In a late development, a dynamic upper level low pressure disturbance, currently over northwestern Mexico and part of an upper level trough (or line) of low pressure extending southwestward from the Great Lakes to the Baja Peninsula, will move eastward across the Rio Grande and across south/central Texas tomorrow into tomorrow night. Even though moisture return is meager in advance of the system, the upper level low is quite dynamic and will create abundant lift so I will increase cloud cover beginning tonight for the IH35 corridor and even squeeze out a few sprinkles tomorrow into tomorrow night as it passes.

(3) In the wake of the upper level disturbance, a cold front, dry in nature, will pass southward through the area by Sunday morning with skies quickly clearing. The passage of the front will act the reinforce the dry and stable air mass in place over Texas.

(4) With abundant sunshine, temperatures will warm back near to slightly above seasonal averages for the middle and latter part of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is now suggesting some rainfall for tomorrow (Saturday) with amounts less than 0.10″.. otherwise a dry forecast period for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very High Confidence Through Tonight
Mid to High Confidence Saturday and Saturday night (Reference Rain Chances)
Very High Confidence Sunday through Thursday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Friday / 04 December 2020

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 59. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 37. Light north northwesterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.10″ or less. High 54. Light northwesterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles before 8pm. Decreasing clouds after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. Low 38. Light northwesterly wind.

SUNDAY….  Sunshine. High 63. Northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 37. Light wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 64. Light wind becoming northerly 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 37. Light northerly wind.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Winds becoming light westerly.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 42. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 72. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 43. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 74. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Friday / 11 December 2020 through Thursday / 17 December 2020…
Temperatures… Near Average    
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04 December)…………………………………. 7:12 am
Sunset this evening (04 December)…………………………………… 5:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05 December)……………………………………… 7:13 am
Sunset tomorrow (05 December)………………………………………. 5:30 pm