Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 14 September 2020 ….

  
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… A Lightning Hazard with any Thunderstorm Late Afternoon into the Evening …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) In the wake of a weak cold front that has settled south of the Austin area in the overnight hours, we’ll see considerable sunshine as we get the week underway. Short range, high resolution model guidance suggests that isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may approach the area from the northeast by late afternoon into the evening but the rain chances for any given location will remain slim and mainly in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor. This same type of pattern will continue tomorrow into Wednesday with front in the Texas coastal plains washing out.

(2) An approaching upper level low pressure disturbance, moving in from the west northwest, will result in a more unstable weather pattern with an increase in cloud cover and rain chances by Thursday and Friday.

(3) As the upper air disturbance moves eastward away from the area and remnants of tropical cyclone Sally moves northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and the southeastern USA, another weak cold front will “backdoor” (moving in from the north northeast) its way across the IH35 corridor Friday night into early Saturday. This will result in drier and slightly cooler air moving into the area from the northeast along with plenty of sunshine for our upcoming weekend.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests the potential of 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain, in general, for the IH35 corridor over the next seven days (through next Sunday) with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Today through Wednesday..
High to very high confidence
Thursday through Friday..
Medium confidence
Saturday through Sunday..
High confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Monday / 14 September 2020

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 10pm. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 72. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 72. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light late.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 90. Light northerly wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. A less than 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″ or less. Low 71. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 40%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 89. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 9pm with an associated lightning threat. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 71. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25″. High 89. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early becoming mostly clear after midnight as a weak cold front passes. Low 70. Light northeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph after midnight.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine and less humid. High 87. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 65. Decreasing north northeasterly wind becoming light late.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 86. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 21 September 2020 through Sunday / 27 September 2020…
Temperatures… Below Average    
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 September)…………………………….. 7:15 am
Sunset this evening (14 September)………………………………. 7:37 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 September)…………………………………. 7:16 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 September)………………………………….. 7:36 pm