Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 16 August 2022
Will Not Be Updated Today…
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
…. Elevated Heat Indices with Above Average Temps Continuing ….
…. High Wildfire Danger Continues …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) The tropical disturbance, over the Rio Grande plains this time yesterday, has moved west northwestward into the Texas Big Bend as upper level high pressure, the “lid” on the atmosphere, builds back over our area from the north. As a result, we’ll see afternoon high temperatures, with abundant sunshine, rising back to above 100 degrees today and Wednesday.
(2) By Thursday into Friday, the upper level high pressure area will shift back toward the U. S. west coast as our upper level winds overhead turn a bit more north northwesterly which will allow our atmosphere to become more unstable as a weak cold front moves southward into central and north Texas. Put this instability and atmospheric lift together with available low level moisture, we’ll see better rain chances return to our local forecast as afternoon highs come down a little closer to season averages.
(3) With the front to our north weakening and returning back northward as a warm front, rain chances will continue into our upcoming weekend but the chance of rain for any given location will decrease a bit under a partly cloudy sky as temperatures warm back to above seasonal averages with highs back to near 100.
(4) One more closing note.. a tropical disturbance, currently a tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is forecast to move northwestward across central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Mexico and then emerge on Friday over the Bay of Campeche where a surface low pressure area is forecast to develop as it then moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The NWS/National Hurricane Center says there is a 20% chance of development of this system by the end of the week. All interests in the far western Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastal areas should monitor this system closely later this week into the weekend and even early next week since it could result in changes in our forecast.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting an average rainfall of 0.50 to 1.00 inch over our area over the next seven day forecast period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A medium to high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 16 August 2022
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 103. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.
WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 105. Light wind becoming south southwesterly 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before midnight with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 77. Light and variable wind.
FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 8pm with an associated lightning threat. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 77. Light south southeasterly wind.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered mainly afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 98. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 77. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch or less. High 99. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 23 August through Monday / 29 August 2022
Temperatures… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 Aug)………………………………………… 6:59 am
Sunset this evening (16 Aug)………………………………………….. 8:11 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 Aug)…………………………………………….. 6:59 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 Aug)……………………………………………… 8:10 pm