TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CDT.. Monday / 28 October 2013

TODAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 78 to 82. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. becoming cloudy late. Patchy drizzle and fog possible after midnight. Low 66 to 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. High 79 to 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a less than 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with rainfall, where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67 to 71. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy in the morning becoming cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms by midday increasing to 50% by late afternoon.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 78 to 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 70% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 66 to 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY…. A 40% chance of morning rain showers as a cold front passes.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Partial clearing.. breezy.. cooler and less humid in the afternoon. High 75 to 79. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph becoming northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 52 to 56. Northwesterly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 73 to 77. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 49 to 53. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 72 to 76. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 48 to 52. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY….  Mostly sunny. High 73 to 77. East northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 4 November 2013  through Sunday / 10 November 2013…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 October)………………………………. 7:42 am
Sunset this evening (28 October)……………………………….. 6:47 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (29 October)……………………………………. 7:43 am
Sunset Tuesday (29 October)…………………………………….. 6:46 pm

…. Time Change Coming Up ….
Central Daylight Time (CDT) back to Central Standard Time (CST)
at 2am next Sunday, 3 November 2013 when you should turn clocks
back to 1am (“fall back”). We gain our hour back that we lost in the
spring when we went from CST to CDT.

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CDT Monday / 28 October 2013

…. A Moist Air Mass in Place Across the Area ….
…. A Strong Upper Air Storm System / Cold Front Due Mid Week ….
…. A Round of Rain Showers and Thunderstorms as System Passes ….

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a cold front extending southwestward from the southern Great Lakes into northern Kansas into Colorado and Wyoming. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a surface low along the cold front over western Kansas and eastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southeasterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a southeastward moving strong upper level low pressure area is over the Reno/Lake Tahoe area of western Nevada and eastern Colorado. An otherwise zonal (west-to-east) flow continues across the rest of the USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 30 to 40 mph.

On this Monday, a warmer than normal moist weather pattern continues across south central Texas as a south southeasterly surface wind persists across the area.

As the upper low out west moves eastward by later tomorrow into tomorrow night and Wednesday, the inflow of moisture from the south and southeast will increase as will atmospheric instability and lift. As a result, we’ll see rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase by late tomorrow night and especially later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some periods of heavier rain are possible.. especially Wednesday night.. as the upper air system, moves by to our distant north. Current NWS guidance suggests than upwards of 1 to 1 1/2 inches of rain could fall over our area Wednesday into early Thursday.. isolated heavier totals are certainly possible.

As the upper system passes, an associated cold front will be allowed to drop through the area on Thursday morning with high pressure.. cooler and drier air.. and clearing skies taking hold late week through the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: High forecast confidence through Thursday (some break in the clouds and exact timing of rain chances being the confidence reducing factors) then very high confidence for Thursday night and Friday through the weekend.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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