Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 09 September 2021

Will Be Updated Shortly…
  
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@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Afternoon Heat Index Values As High as 103 F Today …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A dry and stable weather pattern continues as upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, remains overhead.

(2) A weak cold front has “backdoored” its way into our area coming in from the northeast. No precipitation is expected given the stable atmosphere in place.

(3) By late in the weekend and into early next week, it appears that Gulf of Mexico moisture flow will increase a bit as our atmosphere becomes more unstable. There is a weak tropical system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico that may become part of the forecast story, so we’ll need to monitor this. Based on the latest guidance, I will continue the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms into the forecast beginning on Tuesday mainly timed with maximum daytime heating and in areas along and east of the IH35 corridor.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting little in the way of rainfall – any rainfall amounts should around 1 inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high forecast confidence through Monday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 09 September 2021

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 99. Afternoon heat index values 103. North northeasterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 69. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 100. Afternoon heat index values 104. Calm wind becoming easterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 69. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 98. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Light east southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light east southeasterly wind becoming 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds late. Low 73. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 93. East southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.10 inch or less. Low 74. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 92. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. A 20%chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.05 inch. Low 74. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY….  Some early morning low clouds then becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 92. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Thursday / 16 September 2021 through Wednesday / 22 September 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation…  Near to Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 September)…………………………………… 7:12 am
Sunset this evening (09 September)…………………………………….. 7:44 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (10 September)……………………………………….. 7:13 am
Sunset tomorrow (10 September)………………………………………… 7:43 pm

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 23 August 2021

Will not be updated today…
  
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Heat Stress Index Values as High as 105 F This Afternoon …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, will
result in a stable dry summer weather pattern with near or slightly above seasonal average temperatures through mid week.

(2) The upper level high will weaken overhead as the center of the system shifts more north northeast of the area by late week into the weekend with a better flow of moist and more unstable air surging northwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, I am returning rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast for this time period.

(3) The NWS/National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed tropical weather moving westward over the eastern Caribbean Sea. By the end of the week and into the weekend, this system will be over the western Caribbean Sea with longer range guidance suggesting a more northwestward movement toward the western Gulf Of Mexico by early next week. All interests around the Gulf of Mexico should be monitoring the latest forecast information from the meteorologists at the NWS/National Hurricane Center.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is forecasting 0.10″ or less of rainfall for the IH35 corridor.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high forecast confidence through Saturday
Medium forecast confidence Sunday

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Monday / 23 August 2021

TODAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Afternoon heat index values to 104. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 98. Afternoon heat index values to 104. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 76. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. A few morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. High 97. Afternoon heat index values to 103. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds developing after midnight. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. High 96. Afternoon heat index values to 102. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a low overcast developing late. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk after 1pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. High 95. Afternoon heat index values to 101. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a low overcast developing late. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 8pm. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. Low 77. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk after 12 noon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. High 93. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a low overcast developing late. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk before 9pm. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. Low 76. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. High 92. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Monday / 30 August 2021 through Sunday / 5 September 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 August)……………………………………….. 7:02 am
Sunset this evening (23 August)…………………………………………. 8:04 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 August)……………………………………………. 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 August)…………………………………………….. 8:03 pm