TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 09 October 2014

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 91. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds developing after 10pm. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. High 90. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds developing after 10pm. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves through the area late in the afternoon. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting light north northwesterly in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. Low 67. Light north northwesterly wind becoming light southeasterly after midnight.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds and patchy drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. High 88. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds developing after 11pm. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with the approach of a cold front. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 inch. Low 71. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 10am as a cold front moves southeastward across the area. Rainfall.. where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location.. will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Breezy.. less humid and a little cooler midday through the afternoon. High 85. Southwesterly wind shifting north northwesterly 8 to 18 mph as the front passes before 10am.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Clearing.. breezy and cooler. Low 58. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 55. Light northeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 82. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 16 October 2014 through Wednesday / 22 October 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (09 October)……………………………………………… 7:29 am
Sunset this evening (09 October)………………………………………………. 7:06 pm
Sunrise Friday (10 October)……………………………………………………… 7:30 am
Sunset Friday (10 October)……………………………………………………… 7:05 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Thursday / 09 October 2014

…. South Southeasterly Surface Winds Continue with Higher Humidity ….
…. A More Unsettled Air Mass Friday through the Weekend As a Weak Cold Front Moves In ….
…. A Strong Cold Front Sweeps Across Texas Early Monday ….

On this Thursday morning…. a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extends southward from a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and southwest Texas. High pressure.. to our east.. is located over the eastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a broad and deep trough of low pressure is situated southward from Hudson Bay through the northeastern USA. A eastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance is over Arizona. Upper level high pressure.. acting like a lid on the atmosphere.. extends from northern Mexico across south Texas and the western Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area, about 18,000 feet above the ground, are westerly less than 20 mph.

Low level moisture has increased across our area of Texas; at the same time, the atmosphere has become a bit more unstable. This is evidenced by patchy light rain and drizzle from the northward moving low level cloud deck this morning.

By tomorrow through the weekend.. some remnant mid and upper air moisture from the Pacific Ocean will combine with available atmospheric instability.. low level gulf moisture as well as the approaching upper level low pressure disturbance to give us increased rain shower and thunderstorm chances. Current indications are that we would see widely scattered to scattered precipitation. With the upper air disturbance approaching, a surface cold front will try to move down into the area by late Saturday into Saturday night with it getting into our area before washing out and returning back northward as a warm front by late Saturday night into early Sunday.

By late Sunday into Monday, as the main part of the upper air disturbance moves across Texas, a strong cold front will surge southeastward through Texas with perhaps the best rain shower and thunderstorm chances of the seven day forecast. Guidance suggests that the cold front will arrive in our local area sometime between 5am and 9am Monday. Drier.. much drier and slightly cooler air will overtake the state of Texas.

The latest rainfall guidance from the NWS suggests that we will see upwards to 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between now and Tuesday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high to very high today. By Friday into the weekend and Monday, my confidence falls to medium in regards to precipitation occurrence and timing, precipitation amounts as well as the timing of the cold front early next week.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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