Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
1025am CT – Thursday / 19 March 2015
.. Another Strong Upper Level Low Pressure Storm Systems on the Way ..
.. Two to Four Inches or More of Rainfall Possible Friday through Saturday ..
.. NWS Austin-San Antonio Issues Flash Flood Watch For All of the Local Area
Effective 4pm Friday through 7pm Saturday ..
On this Thursday morning…. a weak stationary front is just north of our area and extends
from central Louisiana west northwestward through central and north central Texas then
into west Texas and central New Mexico. In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong
upper level low pressure disturbance is located over southwestern Arizona and the northern
part of the Baja Peninsula.
The strong upper level disturbance.. to our distant west.. will be approaching the area by later
this afternoon into tonight with abundant atmospheric moisture in place across the area. The
approaching upper level storm will combine with the weakening stationary front just to our
north to result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances beginning by daybreak tomorrow.
Once the rain begins it will continue across the area through tomorrow night through Saturday
before slowly decreasing Saturday night. Given some atmospheric instability, there will be some
embedded thunderstorms as the system passes. Forecast precipitation amounts.. in both the
manual NWS guidance as well as the atmospheric model output.. have increased with upwards
of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible tomorrow through Saturday and Saturday night. As noted below,
the NWS Weather Prediction Center in Washington has all of our area in a “slight” risk area for
exceeding flash flood values 7am tomorrow through 7am Sunday.
NWS Austin-San Antonio meteorologists.. who have already issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH
effective at 4pm tomorrow for all of our area.. they are suggesting that some isolated spots may
see as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain. Local interests throughout south central Texas.. especially with
numerous events going on around the area.. are strongly encouraged to monitor the latest information
regarding this potential heavy rain/flood event for tomorrow into the upcoming weekend.
As the upper level low pressure area moves more overhead tomorrow, the front to the north will
turn back into a cold front and surge southeastward across the area resulting in cooler temperatures
beginning tomorrow into the weekend.
After rain chances decrease Saturday night into early Sunday, clouds will break a bit Sunday into
Monday.
I will continue to monitor this situation.
tk
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