Updated 915am CT – Monday / 17 April 2017

.. Better Rain/Thunderstorm Chances Today ..
.. A Cold Front Due with Chance of Thunderstorms Late Friday into Saturday ..
.. Cooler Temps for the Weekend ..

On this Monday… a low pressure area is over north central Oklahoma with a stationary front extending eastward from the low through northern Arkansas into northwest Tennessee and Kentucky. A cold front extends westward from the Oklahoma low into west Texas southern New Mexico and central Arizona. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are east southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a rather zonal (or west-to-east) upper level wind flow continues across the USA with several weak disturbances traveling eastward across Texas. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are quite variable in direction at speeds 25 mph or less.

Low level moisture continues to increase over the area. This in combination with overnight thunderstorm activity to our southwest will create an unstable environment overhead today with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms expected to develop. Rainfall should remain below 1/2 inch according to NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance.

By tonight and tomorrow through Thursday into Friday morning, a more stable atmospheric environment will prevail with increased amounts of sunshine and warmer temperatures.

By late Friday into Saturday, a stronger upper air low pressure disturbance will travel eastward into the southern plains states with an associated surface cold front. Atthis point, it appears that the front will pass through the area in the predawn into morning hours on Saturday with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms likely. While it is too early to call a severe weather risk with this system, I certainly think that here could be some stronger thunderstorms over parts of Texas (particularly in north Texas) as the system passes.

Sies will clear and temperatures will cool a bit in the wake of the front midday Saturday on into Sunday with a drier and more stable air mass in place over the area as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest in the wake of the front.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 17 April 2017

TODAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. High 82. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 83. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 86. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain early increasing to 50% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered early and mid morning rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by mid morning. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. High 78. Southwesterly wind becoming northwestly 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 57. Northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Sunshine. High 78. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 24 April 2017 through Sunday / 30 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 Apr)……………………………………………. 7:01 am
Sunset this evening (17 Apr)……………………………………………… 8:00 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 Apr)………………………………………………… 7:00 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 Apr)…………………………………………………. 8:01 pm

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 14 April 2017

.. No Fronts or Air Mass Changes Seen Over the Next Seven Days..
.. Better Rain/Thunderstorm Chances with a Disturbance on Monday ..
.. Otherwise Isolated Rain Showers Possible Each Day ..

On this Friday… a low pressure area is over southeastern Colorado. Surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough, or line, of low pressure is along and onshore of the west coast of the USA with another trough over the extreme northeastern USA. A ridge, or line, of high pressure extends from Gulf of Mexico north northwestward to the western Great Lakes. Weak northeastward moving upper level low pressure disturbances are over southwest Louisiana and over the eastern Dakota and western Minnesota. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west northwesterly at 30 to 40 mph.

The return south southeasterly winds has continued to increase the low level moisture and has allowed temperatures to climb a bit. Highs yesterday in the Austin metro area were in the low to mid 80s being the warmest afternoon high temperatures we’ve seen in over a week.

While we will likely continue to see some sunshine, clouds will continue over the coming days. Our next big rain chance will be late Sunday through Monday as a low pressure disturbance passes. After Monday and Tuesday, I expect rain chances to decrease once again until another weather system, with a cold front moving in from the west, approaches us by the end of next week.

Overall through the next seven days, I do not expect any frontal passages and air mass changes. As a result, temperatures will be close to or a bit above seasonal averages over the next seven days.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance suggests that, over the next seven days, we will see average rainfall amounts across south central Texas of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. At this point, other than the risk of dangerous lightning with any thunderstorm that develops, I do not see any risk of severe and/or inclement weather over the next seven days.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 14 April 2017

TODAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 65. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. High 80. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds and drizzle.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. High 83. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 85. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered late afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it’ll average 1/4 inch or less. High 84. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 21 April 2017 through Thursday / 27 April 2017…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 Apr)……………………………………………. 7:05 am
Sunset this evening (14 Apr)……………………………………………… 7:58 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 Apr)………………………………………………… 7:04 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 Apr)…………………………………………………. 7:59 pm