Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 14 August 2020 ….
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… Well Above Average Afternoon and Evening Temperatures Continue …
… NWS / Heat Advisory (Heat Index 105-110F) Remains in Effect into the Weekend …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A dry and stable weather pattern continues through the new week and into our coming weekend as upper level high pressure maintains a “lid” on the atmosphere. I do not see any precipitation locally through the weekend as afternoon high temperatures continue well above seasonal averages.
(2) The upper level high will shift a little further northward by early next week and will result in a more north northwesterly wind aloft. As this occurs, a weak cold front will slide south southwestward into our area by Monday morning before pulling stationary northwest to southeast across the area. As a result, we’ll see a little better chance of a few rain showers and thunderstorms developing in the more unstable air mass. With additional clouds, afternoon high temperatures will come down a few degrees although still remaining above seasonal averages.
(3) As the weak stationary front weakens and washes out, upper level high pressure redevelops over the area by mid and late next week. Accordingly, rain chances decrease and temperatures rebound a few degrees for the time period.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Through Sunday..
Very high confidence
Monday through Tuesday..
Low to medium confidence, reference any rain chances, otherwise medium to high confidence
Wednesday through Thursday..
Medium confidence
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 14 August 2020
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 104. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Some morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 104. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 103. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 78. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
MONDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 101. Winds becoming light and variable except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 9pm. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Winds light and variable except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy with scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. High 99. Winds light and variable except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8pm. A less than 20% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25″. Low 75. Winds light and variable except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.
WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Light winds early becoming southerly wind 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 77. Light south southeasterly wind.
THURSDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 101. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 21 August 2020 through Thursday / 27 August 2020…
Temperatures… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 August)………………………………….. 6:57 am
Sunset this evening (14 August)……………………………………. 8:13 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 August)………………………………………. 6:58 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 August)……………………………………….. 8:12 pm