ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #2 – Final Update
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
735am CT Wednesday / 05 February 2020
… Brief Shot of Much Colder Air Now in Place …
… A Decreased Chance of Freezing/Frozen Precipitation Tonight …
Much colder surface based air.. about 3,000 to 4,000 feet deep.. has made its way down across south central Texas.
By late tonight, a final upper air disturbance will result in very isolated / patchy light precipitation at a time that temperatures on the IH35 corridor are forecast to fall to around 32 degrees. Most model guidance has really dried out the atmosphere making it unlikely that much precipitation will reach the ground. Still, we may see a few drops of light rain potentially mixed with a few snow flakes in the 9pm to 12 midnight time period. I do not anticipate any accumulations or any problems to result for the IH35 corridor and the metro area. After midnight, skies will clear in the wake of the disturbance as drier air moves in.
As skies clear, temperatures will rebound into the 50s tomorrow with abundant sunshine. On Friday, highs will climb back into the 60s to near 70 degrees.
Unless the situation changes, this is will be my final update.
tk
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Updated Wednesday / 05 February 2020 ….
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
.. No Hazards Expected Today Through Tonight ..
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…
(1) As weak upper air disturbances move overhead of the surface based colder air, which is about 3,000 to 4,000 feet deep overhead, over the next 12 hours or so, an overrunning pattern will persist with clouds and very patchy light precipitation possible mainly this morning. Tonight, a final upper air low pressure disturbance will move across the area. As this occurs, surface temperatures will fall to near freezing with a few drops of light rain possibly mixed with a few snow flakes. After the midnight, the clouds clear out as drier air moves in.
(2) Skies will be sunny Friday and pretty much through the weekend with a big warmup expected. A passing upper air low pressure disturbance and an associated weak reinforcing cold front will move southeastward through the area by late morning into midday Saturday but limited moisture availability will mean that the only sensible weather with the system will be a wind shift.
(3) Another low pressure storm system will approach the area for the early part of next week with clouds thickening and the return of rain chances.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 05 February 2020
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy.. breezy and much colder with wind chills remaining in the 20s and 30s. A few rain showers this morning. A 20% chance of rain this morning; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 44. Northerly wind 12 to 22 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy. A drops of light rain redeveloping in the evening with a few snow flakes mixing in before midnight. A 20% chance of rain before midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. No snow/ice accumulation expected. Decreasing clouds after midnight becoming mostly clear. Low 29. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and much warmer. High 55. Northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 38. Light southwesterly wind becoming calm late.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 71. Light wind becoming southwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 43. Light westerly wind.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny with a weak cold front passing by midday. High 67. Light wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph in the morning then northerly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 45. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny through the morning then increasing clouds in the afternoon. High 69. Light easterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″. Low 55. Light southeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .25″ or less. High 70. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .25″ or less. Low 56. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .25″ or less. High 69. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 12 February 2020 through Tuesday / 18 February 2020…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 February)………………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (05 February)……………………………………. 6:11 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (06 February)………………………………………. 7:18 am
Sunset tomorrow (06 February)……………………………………….. 6:12 pm