ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
755am CT Tuesday / 04 February 2020
… Brief Shot of Much Colder Air on the Way with a Narrow Window for Some Mixed Freezing/Frozen Precipitation …
… A Low Precipitation Probability / A Low Confidence Forecast at this Point …
A initial passing upper air disturbance and strong surface cold front will pass through the IH35 corridor and the Austin metro area by this evening. This will usher in much surface colder air that will persist over the next day or two as trailing upper air disturbances continue to move eastward over the area resulting in an “overrunning” pattern with clouds and light precipitation continuing until a final upper air low pressure disturbance passes late tomorrow (Wednesday) night into the predawn hours Thursday. Clouds and precipitation will taper off quickly before sunrise Thursday.
Temperatures overnight tonight into Wednesday night will fall into the 30s but critical temperatures (32 degrees or below) are forecast to remain over the Texas Hill Country so the threat of mixed precipitation will remain over these areas and should not be an issue along the IH35 corridor.
By tomorrow night into early Thursday, the final upper air disturbance will result in a final shot of light precipitation at a time that temperatures on the IH35 corridor fall into the 30 to 32 degree range. Light rain tomorrow evening will potentially mix with light sleet.. light freezing rain and/or light snow as we move closer to the midnight hour. The precipitation will persist for a few hours generally ending and moving east of the IH35 corridor by 3am to 4am Thursday
morning with clouds breaking thereafter. At this point, I don’t feel like there will be any ice/snow accumulation other than perhaps in grassy areas and on elevated bridges and overpasses mainly to our north and northwest. This is especially true considering.. (1) the very warm ground given the warmer temperatures of late, (2) the relatively low probability of
precipitation and (3) the very borderline temperature expected.
As skies clear early Thursday, temperatures will rebound into the 50s with abundant sunshine so overnight problems, if any, Wednesday night into predawn hours Thursday morning will be very short lived.
That’s my weather thought for now.. I will continuing to monitor..
tk
Reminders…
I encourage everyone to be weather aware. Know, in advance, the difference between a
NWS issued WATCH, ADVISORY and WARNING.
Always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
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when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to get emergency updates from https://warncentraltexas.org/ ..
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..
Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 04 February 2020 ….
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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@troykimmelwx
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
.. No Hazards Expected Today Through Tonight ..
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…
(1) A strong upper level low pressure area and surface cold front is approaching the area. It will continue, in bits and pieces, to move overhead today through tonight and tomorrow. By this evening, a strong surface cold front will pass overhead as much colder air surges southeastward through the area.
(2) As weak upper air disturbances move overhead of the surface based colder air tonight into tomorrow, a classic overrunning pattern will persist with clouds and on-and-off precipitation continuing. At this point, temperatures overnight into tomorrow will remain above freezing so no problems are anticipated locally although some issues may occur over the hill country to our distant west and northwest.
(3) Tomorrow (Wednesday) night, a final upper air low pressure disturbance will move across the area. As this occurs, surface temperatures will fall to near freezing with some possibility of mixed light rain.. freezing rain.. sleet and light snow especially in areas northwest of the IH35 corridor. Remember, though, the ground is quite warm given the warmth of late which may result in some freezing/frozen precipitation in northernmost areas.
(4) Skies will clear in the wake of the system in the pre-dawn hours Thursday continuing into Friday and pretty much through the weekend. A passing upper air low pressure disturbance and an associated weak reinforcing cold front will move southeastward through the area by late morning into midday Saturday but limited moisture availability will mean that the only sensible weather with the system will be a wind shift.
(5) Another low pressure storm system will approach the area for the early part of next week with clouds thickening and the return of rain chances.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 04 February 2020
TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. A few rain showers by afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average .10″ or less. High 76. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Breezy and turning much colder as a cold front passes in the early evening. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .05″ or less. Low 35. Wind shifting northerly wind 12 to 22 mph and gusty.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy.. breezy and much colder with wind chills remaining in the 20s and 30s. Scattered rain showers in the morning and then a few rain showers in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 20% by afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average trace amounts. High 40. Northerly wind 12 to 22 mph with some higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy. A few patches of light rain redeveloping in the evening with some freezing rain, sleet and light snow mixing with the rain after midnight as precipitation chances decrease into the post midnight hours. A 30% chance of rain before midnight decreasing to 30% by 2am and then less than 20%by 5am; rainfall, where it occurs, will average .05″ or less. No snow/ice accumulation expected. Low 30. Northerly wind decreasing to 5 to 10 mph becoming light north northeasterly after midnight.
THURSDAY…. A few clouds through 8am then becoming mostly sunny and much warmer. High 55. Light wind becoming westerly 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 38. Light westerly wind becoming calm late.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 70. Light wind becoming west southwesterly 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 44. Light westerly wind.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny with a weak cold front passing by midday. High 69. Light wind becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph in the morning then northerly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 45. Light northeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Light easterly wind.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers developing. Low 55. Light southeasterly wind.
MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than .25″. High 72. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 11 February 2020 through Monday / 17 February 2020…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04 February)………………………………….. 7:20 am
Sunset this evening (04 February)……………………………………. 6:11 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05 February)………………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset tomorrow (05 February)……………………………………….. 6:11 pm