Updated 915am CT – Monday / 10 September 2018
… Unsettled Weather Pattern with Rain Chances Continuing …
… Watching the Gulf of Mexico by Mid and Late Week for Tropical Development …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weakening stationary front extends northeastward from south Texas along the Texas coast into southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Surface high pressure is located over the Great Lakes states and the middle Mississippi River valley. A cold front extends southwestward from western Nebraska into Colorado and then westward into Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are north northeasterly.
On the upper air map… a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow is over the USA with an embedded eastward moving upper air low pressure disturbance over the eastern Great Lakes states. Upper air high pressure, acting like a “lid” on the atmosphere, continues over the southwestern USA as well as along the mid Atlantic seaboard of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are southwesterly about 40 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
With the weakening stationary front onshore along the Texas coast, a moist and unstable air mass will, over the next few days, produce scattered on-and-off rain shower and thunderstorm activity for south central Texas.
As the result of cloud cover and areas of precipitation, afternoon high temperatures will be, for the first time in a while, below seasonal averages.
Another interesting end of week into weekend weather pattern coming up with plenty of moisture in place and considerable uncertainty concerning a disturbance currently located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
While there are no “whats, whys and wheres” or even “if” at this point, the NWS/National Hurricane Center has a recently increased to a 40% chance of tropical development as it moves northwestward toward the northwest Gulf of Mexico and the Texas coast by late this week.
At this point, I’m going to stick with a partly to mostly cloudy sky with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, for late week into next weekend.
It should be noted that this is admittedly a low confidence forecast until we can resolve whether the tropical system will get better developed and, then, of course, where it goes and its timing. If the system fails to develop, I will probably trend down rain chances a bit. If it develops and moves this way, no doubt that we’ll be looking at a very wet weekend.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 10 September 2018
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 81. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. Light east northeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered mainly evening rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 71. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 89. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered mainly rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 72. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered \rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with widely scattered mainly rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 90. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered mainly rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 89. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered mainly rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 74. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average less than 1/4 inch. High 89. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 17 September 2018 through Sunday / 23 September 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (10Sep)………………………………………. 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (10Sep)………………………………………… 7:42 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (11Sep)…………………………………………… 7:13 am
Sunset tomorrow (11Sep)……………………………………………. 7:41 pm