Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Less Humid Today but Southerly Winds Return by the Weekend; Our Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Return with A Cold Front Sunday Night into Monday (Th/13Oct2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Thursday / 13 October 2022

 

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A weak cold front moved southeastward through the IH35 corridor in the 10pm hour last night with little in the way of sensible weather other than the wind shift. Temperatures will be down a couple of degrees with plenty of sunshine for today.

(2) Surface winds will return back south southeasterly by late tomorrow into tomorrow night with a partly cloudy and more humid weather pattern Saturday, Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal averages.

(3) Computer models are becoming quite consistent that a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure will cross Texas and will allow the first stronger cold front of the fall season to move across the IH35 corridor by the late afternoon into evening hours on Sunday. Computer and manual guidance suggests that part of the upper low pressure area will linger to the west so we’ll see not only scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area but some of the rain will continue behind the front in the much cooler temperatures that will move in for Monday and beyond. Interestingly, overnight computer guidance, across the board, have reduced rainfall amounts with this system (and this not reflected yet in the NWS guidance – see below).

(4) Skies clear with a more fall like weather pattern – much cooler temps – for Tuesday into Wednesday.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance shows rainfall of 1.00 to 2.00 inches for the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through Saturday then becoming a high confidence forecast for late Sunday and Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Thursday / 13 October 2022

TODAY…. Mostly sunny and a little less. High 90. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Light northeasterly wind early becoming calm.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 91. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear early then a few low clouds after midnight. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 92. Southerly winds increasing to 8 to 15 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with some low clouds developing after midnight. Low 70. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low cloudiness becoming partly cloudy and breezy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat developing by mid and late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. High 90. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph then becoming more southwesterly in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, as a cold front passes. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, it will average 0.50 inch. Low 64. Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy and much cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50%chance of rain at any given location, it will average another 0.50 inch. High 75. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 60%chance of rain at any given location, it will average 0.25 inch. Low 57. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 12 noon. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50%chance of rain at any given location, it will average 0.25 inch. High 72. North northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 51. Northeasterly wind decreasing to 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. High 74. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 20 October through Wednesday / 26 October 2022
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (13 Oct)………………………………………… 7:32 am
Sunset this evening (13 Oct)………………………………………….. 7:02 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (14 Oct)…………………………………………….. 7:33 am
Sunset tomorrow (14 Oct)……………………………………………… 7:01 pm