Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Afternoon High Temperatures Well Above Seasonal Averages; Still Watching a Major Weather Change by Late Sunday into Monday (We/12Oct2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 12 October 2022

 

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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Hazards Expected …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) We continue with a stable early fall weather pattern. With abundant sunshine, temperatures will continue well above seasonal averages through much of the week.

(2) A weak cold front will move southeastward into our area by late tonight into early tomorrow with little in the way of sensible weather other than the wind shift with the front. Temperatures will actually drop a degree or two with the front.

(3) Surface winds will return back south southeasterly by late Friday into Friday night with a partly cloudy and more humid weather pattern Saturday, Saturday night into Sunday. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal averages.

(4) Computer models are becoming quite consistent that a trough, or line, of upper level low pressure will cross Texas and will allow the first stronger cold front of the fall season to move across the IH35 corridor by the late afternoon into evening hours on Sunday. Computer and manual guidance suggests that part of the upper low pressure area will linger to the west so we’ll see not only scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as the front moves through the area but some of the rain will continue behind the front in the much cooler temperatures that will move in for the first part of next week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance shows rainfall of 1.00 to 2.00 inches for the next seven day forecast period.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A very high confidence forecast through Saturday then becoming a high confidence forecast for late Sunday and Sunday night into Monday and Tuesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 12 October 2022

TODAY…. Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 94. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear with some low clouds developing after midnight. Low 68. Light south southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little less humid as a weak cold front passes early in the morning. High 91. Light wind shifting northerly 4 to 8 mph early.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Light northeasterly wind early becoming calm.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 90. Calm wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear early then a few low clouds after midnight. Low 65. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 90. Southerly winds increasing to 8 to 15 mph with a few higher afternoon gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with some low clouds developing after midnight. Low 67. Southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Morning low cloudiness becoming partly cloudy and breezy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat developing by mid and late afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average 0.25 inch. High 89. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph then becoming more southwesterly in the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, as a cold front passes. Where rainfall occurs, given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, it will average 1.00 inch. Low 64. Southwesterly wind shifting northerly 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy and much cooler with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 60%chance of rain at any given location, it will average another 1.00 inch. High 76. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Where rainfall occurs, given a 60%chance of rain at any given location, it will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Low 56. North northeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat mainly before 12 noon. Where rainfall occurs, given a 50%chance of rain at any given location, it will average 0.25 inch. High 73. North northeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 19 October through Tuesday / 25 October 2022
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (12 Oct)………………………………………… 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (12 Oct)………………………………………….. 7:03 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (13 Oct)…………………………………………….. 7:32 am
Sunset tomorrow (13 Oct)……………………………………………… 7:02 pm