Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Get Ready for Big Changes… Back to Winter Weather, We Go! (Tu/22Feb2022)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 22 February 2022
       

  
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

…. No Hazards Expected ….

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue for today. The return of low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in increased clouds. All of this is occurring in advance of an upper level low pressure storm system later tonight.

(2) As this upper air disturbance moves by, a stronger cold front will pass overhead by this evening with unseasonably chilly temperatures expected the latter part of the week into the upcoming weekend with the chance of light overrunning precipitation in the wake of the front tomorrow into Thursday and Friday and continuing into the weekend (with lagging upper air disturbances passing west-to-east overhead). Temperatures, at this point, are expected to remain at or just above the freezing mark but we need to monitor this closely as we consider the possibility of mixed freezing/frozen precipitation across Texas.

(3) As temperatures remain below seasonal averages, clouds will break during the day Sunday with a dry and sunny start to the new week.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.25 to 0.50 inch of  precipitation over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
A medium to high confidence forecast through the 7 day forecast period.  

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 22 February 2022

TODAY…. Morning low clouds becoming mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 86. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more westerly in the afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes around midnight. Low 41. Light wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph after midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy, breezy and much colder with scattered rain showers developing. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 50% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. Highs remain in the 40s. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers and light rain. Freezing rain may develop in northernmost areas. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 50% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 32. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with scattered rain showers and light rain. Freezing rain in northernmost areas before 10am. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 50% chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 40. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with patchy light rain. Freezing rain may develop in northernmost areas. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. Low 32. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and continued unseasonably cold with patchy light rain. Freezing rain before 10am  in northernmost areas with a few sleet showers possible. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40%chance of rain, will average less than 0.10 inch. High 42. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with patchy light rain. Some freezing rain in northernmost areas. Some light sleet may mix with the rain. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 30% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. Low 33. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy and continued unseasonably cold with a few sprinkles. Some light sleet may mix with the rain before 9am. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 50% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 45. Light northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, at any given location, given a 40% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. Low 36. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy with a few sprinkles before 11am. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny and a little warmer. High 59. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 37. Light east northeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 61. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 01 March 2022 through Monday / 07 March 2022
Temperatures… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 February)…………………………………… 7:04 am
Sunset this evening (22 February)…………………………………….. 6:25 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 February)……………………………………….. 7:03 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 February)………………………………………… 6:26 pm