Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 14 December 2021
       
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… No Weather Threats Expected Today or Tonight …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) Southerly surface winds will continue as surface high pressure settles east of the area. This will continue to result in increased low level moisture with patchy morning fog and continued cloud cover along with warmer temperatures over the coming days.

(2) A weakening cold front will approach the area by Thursday but guidance suggests that the system will stall over north Texas before it gets into the Austin / IH35 corridor area.

(3) A stronger cold front will surge southward through the area in the predawn hours Saturday with an increased rain and perhaps thunderstorm chances. As the front moves off the Texas coast by Saturday, an upper level low pressure area is forecast to linger to our west resulting an a chilly and wet overrunning weather pattern for Saturday into Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will fall to below average for both Saturday and Sunday.

(4) As a more stable weather pattern takes hold, I expect clouds to break with more sunshine in store for Monday. Temperatures will warm a few degrees but still continue to be slightly below average.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance is predicting 0.50 to 1.00″ rainfall for our IH35 corridor over the next seven days.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Medium to High Confidence

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 14 December 2021

TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average trace amounts. High 72. Light wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with fog developing late. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Some morning fog otherwise mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 80. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Some morning fog otherwise mostly cloudy. Continued unseasonably warm. High 80. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 68. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Some morning fog otherwise mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 81. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers developing after 11pm. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning threat, after 2am as a cold front passes. Given a 20% chance of rain at any given location after 11pm and then increasing to 60%after 2am, rainfall will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. Turning breezy and cooler. Low 55. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph shifting northerly 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts after 2am.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy, breezy and much cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average 0.25 inch. High 59. Northerly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.  

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with scattered rain showers. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 41. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.  

SUNDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cool with scattered rain showers. Given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average less than 0.10 inch. High 54. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with widely scattered patches of light rain before midnight. Decreasing clouds after midnight. Given a 20%chance of rain at any given location, rainfall will average trace amounts. Low 43. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.  

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. High 63. East northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 21 December 2021 through Monday / 27 December 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 December)……………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (14 December)……………………………………… 5:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 December)………………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 December)…………………………………………. 5:32 pm