Updated 915am CT – Monday / 04 June 2018

… Thunderstorm Complex Moves Overhead Northern Areas Overnight …
… Rain Chances Decrease After Today with Sunshine Returning …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a stationary front extends westward from the Mobile AL/New Orleans LA area to overhead of south central Texas then westward into far southwest/west Texas then into southwestern New Mexico. High pressure, to the north of the front, is centered over northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are light and variable.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from south of Hudson Bay into the northeastern USA. A trough, or line, of upper level low pressure area also extends south southwestward from offshore of British Columbia to offshore of the USA west coast. An upper air disturbance is situated from southern Kansas into Texas. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are fairly light southwesterly 10 to 15 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

Our southward moving cold front has pulled up stationary east-to-west just south of the Austin metro area. An upper air disturbance combine with the dissipating front as well as available low level moisture and instability to produce overnight rain shower and thunderstorm activity in the northern parts of south central Texas. There were considerable differences in rainfall amounts in relatively small areas; parts of northeastern Travis County around Pflugerville and hill country areas over southern Burnet county received between 5 to 6 inches of rain while southwestern Travis County received no rainfall.

The upper air disturbance, the front and instability will be hanging around today into tonight with a lingering chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.

Longer range forecast guidance suggests that the stationary front will wash out and then return back quickly northward as a warm front by tonight into tomorrow. In the wake of the upper air low pressure disturbance, upper level high pressure will strengthen again with a dry weather pattern for the middle and latter part of the week through the weekend.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, rainfall, over the next seven days, will average less than a tenth of an inch.

Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 04 June 2018

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and not as warm with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 93. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms before 9pm with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain; where rain occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some brief morning low clouds otherwise mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 75. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 11 June 2018 through Sunday / 17 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04 Jun)………………………………………… 6:29 am
Sunset this evening (04 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:30 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (05 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (05 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:30 pm

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 01 June 2018

… A Dry and Summer Like Weather Pattern Continues …

On the Weather Map…

On the surface map… a low pressure area is over the Texas/New Mexico state line with a stationary front extending northeastward into northwestern Oklahoma and central Kansas and northeastward from there. A dryline, a boundary between moist air mass to the east from the drier continental airmass to the west, extends from the surface low southwestward into southeastern New Mexico and far southwestern Texas. Surface high pressure is situated well to our east off the southeastern USA seaboard. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds over south central Texas are southerly.

On the upper air map… a trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southeastward from Hudson Bay into the southeastern USA. A trough, or line, of upper level low pressure area also extends south southwestward from northern Idaho southward to off the coast of southern California. Upper level high pressure is building northeastward from northern Mexico into the southern plains states. As a result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are northwesterly about 35 to 40 mph.

What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…

The dry weather pattern continues with the stable summer like weather pattern to prevail through the balance of the week and continuing into the upcoming weekend.

Guidance is still suggesting that afternoon highs will rise to near 100 by the weekend as the upper level high pressure, to our southwest over northern Mexico and southwest Texas, builds northeastward into the area and establishes more of a “lid” on the atmosphere locally.

There are still some indications that a weak cold front.. with stronger northwest winds aloft.. will make it southward into central Texas by Sunday morning. With upper air high pressure increasing its hold on the area, afternoon high temperatures locally may peak in areas in advance of the front by Saturday and Sunday as the front tries to move deeper in Texas. Some marginal instability and atmospheric lift will develop Sunday afternoon south of the dissipating front; as a result, I’ll now include isolated thunderstorms primarily north of Austin with an associated lightning risk as well as a threat of very strong, potentially damaging, straightline winds.

Extended forecast guidance suggests that Sunday cold front will wash out just to our north by Sunday afternoon and then return back quickly northward as a warm front by Sunday night into Monday. Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern with a dry weather pattern for much of next week.

Based upon the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, rainfall, over the next seven days, will average less than a tenth of an inch.

Have a good Friday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT… Friday / 01 June 2018

TODAY…. Some AM low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 99. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Brief morning low clouds, otherwise mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning and strong wind threat. A 10% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/10th inch or less. High 101. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Isolated thunderstorms before 9pm with an associated lightning and strong wind threat. A 10% chance of rain; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/10th inch or less. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light and variable wind except strong, variable and gusty around any thunderstorms.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 99. Light and variable wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light southerly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 100. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 08 June 2018 through Thursday / 14 June 2018…
Temperatures… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 Jun)………………………………………… 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (01 Jun)………………………………………….. 8:28 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 Jun)…………………………………………….. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 Jun)……………………………………………… 8:29 pm