Updated 915am CT – Monday / 23 January 2017

… A Mostly Dry and Stable Weather Pattern Over the Next Week …
… A Cold Front with a Cooling Trend by Middle Part of the Week …

On this Monday… a strong surface low pressure system is over the Appalachians with a cold front extending southeastward into the southwest North Atlantic Ocean east of Florida. Surface high pressure, behind the front, extends southward from eastern Kansas into south Texas. To the northwest, a surface low pressure area is over eastern Colorado with a developing trough, or line, of surface low pressure extending southward into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep upper level low pressure area is over the Carolinas with a deep trough, or line, of upper level low pressure extending southward across Florida. Another strong upper level low pressure area is over the eastern Pacific west of Oregon with a trough extending south southwestward off the est coast of the USA.
Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are westerly at 55 to 65 mph.

In the wake of the passing upper level storm system and surface cold front late Saturday into the predawn hours yesterday, a mostly dry and stable weather pattern continues across our area with the surface high pressure overhead this morning.

By later today, as the surface high pressure area and its attendant clockwise wind flow moves eastward, our surface winds will return southerly. With abundant sunshine, our temperatures will warm a bit through tomorrow with a record high temperature (81F back in 2013) threatened at Austin City / Camp Mabry for tomorrow.

I expect our next cold front to pass through the area as the low pressure area out west moves through the area tomorrow night into the predawn hours Wednesday. Limited low level moisture return and a fairly stable air mass will preclude any rain chances as the front passes.

Cooler temperatures will prevail Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. Another very weak reinforcing cold front will pass the area late Friday into Saturday with only a few clouds present.

I do not expect any precipitation over the next seven days with temperatures, after the cold front tomorrow night, falling back to seasonal levels.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 23 January 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 74. Light wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 51. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 81. South southwesterly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy as a cold front passes after midnight. Low 47. Southwesterly wind shifting northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny.. breezy and cooler. High 64. North northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 38. Light northerly wind.

THURSDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 62. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 39. Light north northeasterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 63. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 40. North northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 63. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 37. Light northerly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 64. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 30 January 2017 through Sunday / 05 February 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 Jan)……………………………………………. 7:26 am
Sunset this evening (23 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:59 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (24 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:26 am
Sunset tomorrow (24 Jan)…………………………………………………. 6:00 pm

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 20 January 2017

… A Stable Weather Pattern Into the Weekend …
… Strong Storm System and Strong Wind Threat Late Saturday through Sunday …
… Cooling Trend by Middle Part of Next Week …

On this Friday… a stationary front extends east to west from northern Arkansas through Oklahoma through the Texas panhandle and into a surface low pressure area over southeastern Colorado.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. three upper level low pressure areas are influencing the nation’s weather. The leading disturbance is over the upper Mississippi valley with a second disturbance over southeastern Colorado. A third disturbance is off the Washington/Oregon coasts. Our upper level winds, at about 18,500 feet overhead, are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.

The cool morning temperatures combined with the wet ground is resulting in patchy fog but I expect it to lift and “burn off” by mid morning.

The upper level disturbance, to our distant north over the northern plains, continues to move northeastward away from Texas.

Another upper air disturbance – this the one over southeastern Colorado – will send an associated disturbance southwest to northeast overhead today but with the air mass being relatively stable and dry, all I expect are a few high clouds. Some precipitation could form by late afternoon in areas well southeast of Austin mainly in those areas south of the IH10 corridor and east of the US77 corridor. With the clearing skies, we’ll see warmer temperatures and that will continue into the weekend.

The next dynamic low pressure storm system and surface cold front will arrive across the IH35 corridor by tomorrow night into early Sunday but I expect little in the way of clouds and precipitation with the passage of the system. Isolated rain showers are possible as the front approaches and moves through the area but the best chances will remain to the east of the area. The main concern with this system is the very strong pressure gradient that, according to atmospheric model guidance, will accompany the system. Current thought is that, in the wake of the cold front early Sunday, our sustained northwesterly winds will be in the 30 to 40 mph with even some higher gusts to around 50 mph. It is something we will need to watch closely in the coming days from not only the high wind threat (non-thunderstorm, this will be under a clear sky) but also, as a result of drying dormant vegetation, a wildfire threat as well.

A quiet weather pattern will prevail for early next week with plenty of sunshine. After a little cooling in the temperatures Sunday into Monday, we’ll see warmer temperatures by Tuesday.

Another cold front.. a little stronger in nature.. will move over the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday. I believe this will begin a trend toward much cooler temperatures that will continue into the 8 to 14 day outlook period.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 20 January 2017

TODAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 79. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55. Light southerly wind.

SATURDAY…. Some patchy morning fog.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and continued unseasonably warm. High 76. South southwesterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy as a cold front passes by midnight. Widely scattered rain showers late; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 51. Southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northwesterly and increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. Strong winds and cooler. High 66. Northerly wind increasing to 30 to 40 mph by late morning through the afternoon with some gusts to 45 to 50 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 44. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph late.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 68. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 48. Light northeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 70. Light easterly wind early becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy as a cold front passes after midnight. Low 47. Light south southeasterly wind shifting northwesterly and increasing to 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy.. breezy and cooler. High 67. North northwesterly 10 to 20 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 26 January 2017 through Wednesday / 01 February 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (19Jan)…………………………………………….. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (19 Jan)……………………………………………… 5:57 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (20 Jan)………………………………………………… 7:27 am
Sunset tomorrow (20 Jan)…………………………………………………. 5:57 pm