Updated 915am CT – Monday / 03 April 2017

.. A Dry Stable Weather Pattern ..

On this Monday… a surface low is over southwestern Missouri with a cold front extending southward through eastern Arkansas and eastern Louisiana into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are light south southwesterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an eastward moving trough of low pressure extends south southeastward from eastern Kansas and western Missouri into Louisiana and the northern Gulf of Mexico. A broad upper level trough of low pressure overs the western two thirds of the USA. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are west northwesterly at 45 to 50 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues in place in the wake of the weekend low pressure storm system and cold front.

With a south southwesterly surface wind, our afternoon high temperatures through tomorrow will be well above seasonal averages with afternoon high temperatures threatening the record high temperatures.

Another upper air low pressure storm system and associated cold front is slated to move across south central Texas and the IH35 corridor by tomorrow (Tuesday) night. Moisture return ahead of this stronger cold front will be meager so this will be a dry frontal passage with a wind shift and increasing north northwesterly surface wind about the only sign of the frontal passage.

Expect considerable sunshine with much cooler temperatures Wednesday into Thursday before a warm up gets underway Friday into the weekend with the sunshine continuing.

Another cold front approaches Texas from the west by Sunday into Monday with increasing low level moisture and increased cloud cover. At this point, I will not mention any rain chances since my confidence is very low.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 03 April 2017

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 82. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 59. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Sunshine. High 89. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT… Mostly clear as a cold front passes around midnight. Low 55. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northwesterly 10 to 18 mph after midnight.

WEDNESDAY… Sunshine.. windy and cooler. High 73. North northwesterly wind 12 to 22 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 47. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 77. Light northeasterly wind.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 51. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm overnight.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 82. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds and more humid. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 85. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 10 April 2017 through Sunday / 16 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (03 Apr)……………………………………………. 7:16 am
Sunset this evening (03 Apr)……………………………………………… 7:52 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (04 Apr)………………………………………………… 7:15 am
Sunset tomorrow (04 Apr)…………………………………………………. 7:52 pm

Updated 915am CT – Friday / 31 March 2017

.. Another Period of Stormy Weather Over the Weekend ..
.. Sunshine Again Early and Mid Parts of Next Week ..

On this Friday… a deepening surface low pressure area is located over the four corners region with a cold front extending southward through western New Mexico into extreme southeastern Arizona and then into Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, an eastward moving deep trough of low pressure is over the southwestern USA centered over central Arizona. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly at 50 to 60 mph.

A dry and stable weather pattern continues in place over the area as southerly low level wind flow becomes reestablished with plenty of sunshine over the area.

That next upper level low pressure storm system, the one situated over the Arizona, and the associated cold front will move east southeastward and eastward into Texas and will result in increasing moisture and atmospheric instability and lift by tomorrow with increased clouds and renewed and increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by late in the day tomorrow into tomorrow night and Sunday. I continue to see the chance of periods of heavier rain along with an associated lightning risk and the marginal possibility of severe thunderstorms possibly accompanied by larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds particularly in the overnight hours Saturday night. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance indicates that we’ll see 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches of rainfall from this system. Guidance suggests that the system will linger across the area on Sunday with a cold front progressing eastward over our area by afternoon and then it will move east of the area, with decreased rain chances, by late Sunday. Skies will clear by Sunday night into Monday with a dry and stable weather pattern prevailing for Monday and Tuesday.

Another upper air low pressure storm system and associated cold front is slated to move across south central Texas and the IH35 corridor next Wednesday. Depending on the moisture return into the area ahead of this system, we could see another chance of rain showers and thunderstorms; however, at this point, I don’t have the confidence to mention anything other than isolated coverage.

A clearing sky along with cooler temperatures will then kick in for Thursday and Friday as that cold front moves into the eastern USA.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 31 March 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny with near record warmth. High 89. South southwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear early then low clouds developing after 12 midnight. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing, with an attendant lightning risk, by afternoon. A 30% chance of rain by midday increasing to 50% by late afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. Some thunderstorms may be severe with a hail and straight line thunderstorm wind risk after 9pm. A 50% chance of rain early increasing to 60% by midnight; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 inch. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph except strong, variable and gusty in thunderstorms.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk continuing as a cold front passes by mid to late afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with a hail and straight line thunderstorm wind risk through the midday hours. An 80% chance of rain through 3pm with rain chances decreasing afterwards; rainfall, where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 78. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southwesterly by early afternoon before shifting north northwest by mid and late afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk continuing through 8pm. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds after 8pm and becoming partly cloudy. A little cooler. Low 57. Northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Sunshine. High 81. West northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 57. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little warmer. High 85. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT… A few clouds. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY… Morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy and turning a little cooler with isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk as a cold front passes in the morning to midday hours. A 10% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 75. Southwesterly winds becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear and cooler. Low 52. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 07 April 2017 through Thursday / 13 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (31 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:21 am
Sunset this evening (31 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:49 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (01 Apr)………………………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (01 Apr)…………………………………………………. 7:50 pm