Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 28 March 2017
.. Stormy Weather Due with Thunderstorms Tonight into Tomorrow ..
.. Return to Sunshine for Late Week ..
.. Another Period of Stormy Weather Late Saturday into Sunday ..
On this Tuesday… a developing surface low pressure area is over northern New Mexico and Colorado with another over southern New Mexico. A warm front extends eastward from southern New Mexico eastward through central and northern Texas and then across the ArkLaTex region. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are east southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening trough of low pressure extends from the intermountain west southward into the southwestern USA and northwestern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are southwesterly at 45 to 50 mph.
Overnight, we’ve seen the return of late night and early morning low cloudiness as the weakening stationary front overhead yesterday retreated, as expected, northward as a warm front.
By later today into tonight, our atmosphere will grow quickly more unstable as the leading edge effects of the upper level trough, to our west, moves eastward out of the southwestern USA into the southern plains. We’ll see isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms as early as afternoon today to our west and then more area wide tonight through the first half of the day tomorrow. In addition to a threat of heavier rains, 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches in some areas, there will be a associated threat of dangerous lightning as well as severe weather including larger hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. As the system passes midday into early afternoon tomorrow, a weak cold front will move eastward through the area with rain chances decreasing rather rapidly with skies clearing as drier air moves in from the west.
It looks like plenty of sunshine with above average daytime high temperatures for both Thursday and Friday.
The front, that passes southeast of the area by tomorrow afternoon, will retreat back northward as a warm front by Friday into Friday night with low level moisture increasing once again.
The next upper level low pressure storm system and associated cold front will result in increasing moisture and atmospheric instability and lift by Saturday with increased clouds and renewed and increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by late in the day Saturday into Saturday night and into Sunday morning. I continue to see the chance of periods of heavier rain along with an associated lightning risk and the possibility of severe thunderstorms possibly accompanied by larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds. Guidance suggests that the system will linger across the area on Sunday and moving east of the area, with decreased rain chances, by Monday.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 28 March 2017
TODAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to our west with an attendant lightning risk by afternoon. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 86. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with rain shower and thunderstorm chances.. with an attendant lightning risk.. increasing especially after 10pm. Periods of heavier rain are possible along with the possibility of severe thunderstorms accompanied by larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds. A 30% chance of rain early then increasing to 70% at any given location after midnight; where it occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 66. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an attendant lightning risk before 2pm. Periods of heavier rain are possible along with the possibility of severe thunderstorms accompanied by larger hail and damaging straight line thunderstorm winds. An 80% chance of rain at any given location; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Decreasing clouds by early afternoon becoming partly cloudy and less humid after 2pm. High 80. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming west southwesterly by mid afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and a little cooler. Low 56. Westerly winds 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. Northwesterly wind 8 to 18 mph with some higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 56. Light northwesterly wind becoming light and variable after midnight.
FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny and unseasonably warm. High 87. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear early with low clouds developing after midnight. Low 64. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing, with an attendant lightning risk, by midday and continuing through the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain by afternoon; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. High 81. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain early increasing to 70% by 10pm; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/2 to 3/4 inch. Low 64. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk continuing as a cold front passes by late afternoon. A 70% chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 inch. High 79. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming southwesterly late.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an attendant lightning risk continuing through midnight. A 40% chance of rain; where it occurs, will average an additional 1/4 inch. Decreasing clouds and a little cooler after midnight. Low 58. Northwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY…. Partly cloudy early then becoming mostly sunny. High 80. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 04 April 2017 through Monday / 10 April 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (28 Mar)……………………………………………. 7:25 am
Sunset this evening (28 Mar)……………………………………………… 7:48 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (29 Mar)………………………………………………… 7:23 am
Sunset tomorrow (29 Mar)…………………………………………………. 7:48 pm