Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 16 May 2017
.. An Unsettled Weather Pattern Developing Through the Weekend ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorms on the Increase ..
On this Tuesday… a surface low pressure area extends south southwestward from South Dakota and Nebraska into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. A dry line, separating dry air to the west from warmer and moist air northward off the Gulf of Mexico, extends south southwestward from the surface low over eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico and far west Texas east of El Paso. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a deepening upper air low pressure trough, or north to south line of low pressure, covers the western half of the USA with disturbances embedded within the trough over southern Nevada and another disturbance over the Olympic Peninsula of western Washington. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over south central Texas are westerly 55 to 65 mph.
In the wake of the drier and more stable air mass that arrived locally over the weekend, a maritime tropical air mass is back in place over the area with south southeasterly surface wind right off the Gulf of Mexico.
The approaching upper air low pressure trough, currently located over the western half of the USA, will cause our atmosphere to become more unstable over the next coupe of days. The first in a series of upper level low pressure disturbances will move southwest to northeast over west Texas by later tonight into early tomorrow; As it does, atmospheric lift, low level moisture and atmospheric instability will combine to result in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Some stronger thunderstorms are possible mainly in areas west of the IH35 corridor, with hail and stronger straight line thunderstorm wind being the risk.
After the initial disturbance moves through the area by midday tomorrow, we’ll continue to see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow night through Thursday, Friday and Friday night under a partly to mostly cloudy sky even though it is difficult to find an exact triggering mechanism other than daytime heating.
By Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and into early Sunday, another stronger upper level low pressure disturbance will pass southwest to northeast over our area and will allow a surface cold front to move southeastward across the IH35 corridor by sunrise Sunday morning. Scattered to locally numerous rain showers and thunderstorms, including an attendant lightning risk, will be present over the area particularly after mid afternoon Saturday through midday Sunday. Periods of heavier rain are possible over the area.
The cold front will weaken Sunday through Monday along an east-west line to the south of the Austin metro area. As a result, although reduced, I will keep rain shower and thunderstorm chances going Sunday into the first part of next week.
Over the next seven days, the latest guidance suggests upwards of 1 to 2 inches of rain locally with isolated heavier amounts.
Have a good Tuesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT.. Tuesday / 16 May 2017
TODAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly cloudy. High 90. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly cloudy after 9pm. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms after midnight with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain in the morning decreasing to 30% for midday and afternoon; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 88. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 72. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds, otherwise partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly after 2pm with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 87. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 71. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a weak cold front moves southeastward through the area. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 83. Winds becoming light east northeasterly around daybreak.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy and a little cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. Low 66. Light easterly wind.
MONDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 40% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs at any given location, it will average 1/4 inch. High 84. Light wind.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Tuesday / 23 May 2017 through Monday / 29 May 2017…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (16 May)……………………………………………. 6:36 am
Sunset this evening (16 May)……………………………………………… 8:19 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (17 May)………………………………………………… 6:35 am
Sunset tomorrow (17 May)…………………………………………………. 8:20 pm