Updated 915am CT – Monday / 26 March 2018
… Low Pressure Storm System and Cold Front Approaching …
… Rain Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Increasing …
… Heavier Rain and Strong Thunderstorm Threat Mid Week …
… A Cooler and Less Humid Pattern with Sunshine Returning by Late Week …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a developing low pressure system is over southwestern Kansas.. northwestern Oklahoma and the northeastern Texas panhandle. A warm front extends east southeastward from the low through eastern Oklahoma across the ArkLaTex region then into southeastern Louisiana and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as a stationary front. A cold front extends westward from the surface low into southern Colorado across the four corners region and into western Arizona. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are southerly.
On the upper air map… a deepening low pressure trough, or a “line” of low pressure, extends south southeastward from western Canada to off the southern California coast over the Pacific Ocean. A ridge, or line, of upper level high pressure extends northward from the northern Gulf of Mexico to over the eastern Great Lakes. As result of the upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our local area are west southwesterly 50 to 55 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
As we start the new week, our atmosphere has turned much more humid and it is also becoming a bit more unstable.
With the approach of the upper level low pressure storm system and the associated surface cold front from out west, we’ll see rain and thunderstorm chances increasing especially tomorrow and tomorrow night through Wednesday night. With abundant lift developing in a much more unstable atmosphere, rain chances will rise dramatically with the possibility of periods of heavier rain along with a risk of severe thunderstorms by tomorrow night late through Wednesday. The NWS/Storm Prediction Center has posted a “slight” risk of severe thunderstorms, with the main risks being larger hail and damaging straightline thunderstorm winds, for the time period from late tomorrow (Tuesday) night through Wednesday. The latest guidance from the NWS/Weather Prediction Center suggests that rainfall in the time period between now and midday Thursday will average between 1 to 2 inches.. a beneficial rain that our area does need.
Once the cold front moves through the area on Wednesday and the upper air storm system clears the area by early Thursday, we’ll see rain chances decrease with sunshine returning Thursday and continuing through Friday and our upcoming weekend. Temperatures and humidity will drop back in the wake of the front.
For Friday through the weekend, it looks like plenty of sunshine with temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages.
Have a good Monday..
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
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Updated 845am CT… Monday / 26 March 2018
TODAY…. Partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High 86. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TONIGHT…. Thickening clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers before 12 midnight with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, after midnight. A 20% chance of rain before midnight increasing to 30 to 40% after midnight; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 69. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.
TUESDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, with an associated lightning risk, in the morning then becoming more numerous in the afternoon. A 50% chance of rain in the morning increasing to 60% by afternoon; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. High 81. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mpg with some higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms likely with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 67. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Cloudy and a little cooler with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes by midday. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 74. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly by midday.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. a low overcast developing after 11pm. Low 56. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Some clouds before 9am.. otherwise mostly sunny and less humid. High 77. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more northeasterly in the afternoon.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear as a secondary cold front moves through the area. Low 54. Easterly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northwesterly late.
FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 76. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 52. Light northerly wind becoming calm late.
SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 80. Light northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly in the afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 59. Light southeasterly wind.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 81. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 02 April 2018 through Sunday / 08 April 2018…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (26 March)………………………………………. 7:27 am
Sunset this evening (26 March)………………………………………… 7:46 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (27 March)…………………………………………… 7:26 am
Sunset tomorrow (27 March)……………………………………………. 7:47 pm