Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #4
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist & TAMU Athletics Team Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
300pm CT – Monday / 03 September 2018

.. Tropical Cyclone Gordon Heads for the Southeastern Louisiana.. Mississippi and
Alabama Coasts.. Hurricane Watches Issued for Area .. Main Effect Well to Our East ..

.. Heavier Rainfall Potential Over the Next Seven Days for South Central Texas with
Average Rainfall Upwards of 2 to 4 Inches.. Isolated Heavier Amounts Will Occur ..

First things first.. I hope you’re having a good Labor Day…

We are dealing with two different weather features on this Labor Day. As far as this
statement is concerned, I will deal with them separately..

… Tropical Cyclone Gordon …
See the graphics below courtesy of the NWS/National Hurricane Center. Model guidance
is very consistent on bringing the tropical cyclone.. as a minimal hurricane.. onshore in the middle Gulf Coast region of Southeastern Louisiana.. Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the nighttime and overnight hours tomorrow night into the predawn hours Wednesday morning. After landfall, the system will move northwestward and weaken with the most direct effects being well to the east and northeast of our area. Unless things change, this will be my last reference to Gordon.

… Heavier Rainfall Potential for South Central Texas Over the Next Seven Days …
Not the direct effect of tropical cyclone Gordon, we have had major changes occurring over the last couple of  days in our atmosphere over south central Texas. In addition to the weakening/collapse of the upper level high pressure area which as been holding stubbornly overhead through the summer – I often refer to as a “lid” on the atmosphere – we’ve seen a big increase in Gulf of Mexico moisture moving northwestward into our area. You combine all of this with an increasingly unstable atmosphere and a weak atmospheric low over north and west Texas, we have higher rain chances than we’ve seen lately; this type of weather pattern is expected to persist through much of the next seven day forecast period. With the threat of periods of heavier rain will come the danger of frequent cloud-to-ground lightning as well as some strong, gusty and variable winds to 40mph. Even with the ongoing drought over the area, some flooding of low water crossings and urban/small stream areas is possible. It is possible that a few NWS issued Flash Flood Warnings will be
released where heaviest amounts fall quickly.

The latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance suggests that our area of south central Texas could see, on average, about 2 to 4 inches of rain through next Sunday with isolated higher amounts certainly possible.

—

In closing, I will continue to keep you informed on this potential heavier rainfall event for south central Texas.

Remember, PLEASE, especially when using social media accounts (Twitter, Facebook) for any weather information, only use social media sources that you TRUST. Anyone can post in Twitter and Facebook; if you don’t KNOW and TRUST that person or source, then please go to the NWS/National Hurricane Center, NWS/Austin-San Antonio and/or NWS/Houston-Galveston websites for the official information.

tk

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #2
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
130pm CT – Sunday / 02 September 2018

.. 90% Chance of Development of Tropical Cyclone Development Over Next Five Days ..
.. Tropical Storm Watches May Be Required Later Tonight for the Northern Gulf Coast ..
.. Main Effect, At This Time, Would be East of Texas But We Must Continue to Watch ..

Remember, PLEASE, especially when using social media accounts (Twitter, Facebook) only use sources that you TRUST. Anyone can post in Twitter and Facebook; if you don’t KNOW and TRUST that person or source, then please go to the NWS/National Hurricane Center or NWS/Austin-San Antonio websites for the official information.

… BELOW IS AUTHORITY / NWS – National Hurricane Center …

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located
between north-central Cuba and the central Bahamas is gradually
becoming better organized, and upper-level winds are also becoming
more favorable. A tropical depression is likely to form during the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys. The
system is forecast to emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by
early Tuesday and move toward the north-central Gulf Coast Tuesday
night and Wednesday. This system will produce locally heavy rains
and gusty winds across the central and northwestern Bahamas,
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or two. A
tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern
Gulf Coast tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of this system. For more information, see products from
your local weather forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.