Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 29 May 2020 ….

      
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

.. Lighting Risk with Any Isolated Thunderstorms South Southeast of Austin
in the Coastal Plains and South Texas Today into Tonight ..

 

—-

AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

.. Isolated Thunderstorms in the Coastal Plains into South Texas Today ..
.. Dry and More Stable Weather Pattern Returns ..

(1) A bit of lingering instability will result in isolated rain showers and thunderstorms to our south and southeast today.

(2) Upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” of the atmosphere, will result in a dry and stable late spring/early summer weather pattern for most of the seven day forecast period ahead. Daytime high temperatures will be near to slightly above seasonal averages over the coming days. 

—-

Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Friday / 29 May 2020

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk mainly in areas south through southeast of Austin. A 10%chance of rain; rainfall, where it occurs, will average 0.10″ or less. High 90. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 67. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 90. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 67. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 91. Northeasterly wind in the morning becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 68. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 91. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 69. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 91. South southeasterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 70. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 92. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. A few clouds. Low 71. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 93. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Friday / 05 June 2020 through Thursday / 11 June 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (29 May)………………………………….. 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (29 May)……………………………………. 8:27 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (30 May)………………………………………. 6:30 am
Sunset tomorrow (30 May)……………………………………….. 8:27 pm

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #11
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
825am CT – Wednesday / 27 May 2020

… Round of Strong/Severe Thunderstorms Later Today into Tonight …
… Threat of Very Large/Damaging Hail, Damaging Straight Line Thunderstorm Wind
and a Few Tornadoes …

There is little change in my forecast thought since yesterday.

A trough, or line, of upper level low pressure, with the main circulation over north Texas and Oklahoma, continues over the central USA. As a smaller but dynamic low pressure disturbance.. moving east southeastward in the counter clockwise flow around this trough.. moves into our area from northwest Texas by later today into tonight timed with maximum daytime heating, abundant low level moisture and more than adequate atmospheric instability, we’ll see the possibility of stronger, potentially severe, thunderstorms along the IH35 corridor.

In the day one severe thunderstorm outlook, the NWS/Storm Prediction Center continues the “enhanced” risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms for all of our area later today into tonight; the main risks being mentioned include very large/damaging hail, strong/damaging straight line thunderstorm wind and even a few tornadoes.

The latest high resolution model guidance suggests that a few strong thunderstorms will rapidly develop in areas northeast through northwest of Austin in the 3 pm to 4pm hour today with thunderstorms then becoming more scattered to our north and northwest before sweeping southeastward across the IH35 corridor between 5pm and 10pm tonight. The severe thunderstorm threat should diminish after 10pm based on this guidance.

Dangerous lightning will, of course, also be a risk around any thunderstorms.

Day 1 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook (7am Today to 7am Thursday)…

(Courtesy NWS/Storm Prediction Center)

In addition to the severe thunderstorm threat, we could see some localized nuisance flooding problems as these thunderstorms move through our area. Given the fairly progressive movement expected of these thunderstorms, NWS/Weather Prediction Center forecast rainfall amounts are still generally an 1 inch or less (isolated higher amounts possible), so we should be in good shape assuming we use common sense and remember to “turn around, don’t drown.”

Days 1-3 Rainfall Forecast (7am today through 7am Saturday)…

(Courtesy NWS/Weather Prediction Center and NWS/West Gulf River Forecast Center)

Let’s continue to be weather aware and listen for the latest information from the
NWS/Austin San Antonio as this system moves across the area this afternoon into tonight.

I’ll continue to monitor..
tk


Reminders…
I encourage everyone to be weather aware. Know, in advance, the difference between a
NWS issued WATCH, ADVISORY and WARNING.

Always have at least two methods of getting current weather information..
.. follow me AND activate notifications on Twitter .. @troykimmelwx ..
.. have your NWS All Hazards Weather Radio properly set so it can receive and activate
when NWS watches and warnings are issued ..
.. register to receive emergency updates at https://warncentraltexas.org/
.. make sure the WEA alerts are activated in your settings on your smart phone ..
.. go to the NWS Austin-San Antonio website at weather.gov/ewx ..
.. go to http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/cgi-bin/afos/retrieve.py?pil=warewx&limit=20&fmt=html
for a chronological text listing (most current at the top but note the page doesn’t auto-refresh, you must refresh page manually) of NWS Austin-San Antonio watches, advisories and warnings..