…. Light to Moderate Rains …. NWS Flash Flood Watch No Longer in Effect ….

On this Wednesday morning.. the surface cold front has moved southeastward to near
the Texas coast. As cooler surface air has moved into the area, a lagging upper air disturbance,
to our west, is causing low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to continue to surge northwestward
and to “overrun” the colder surface air. In addition, the remnants of Pacific tropical cyclone Octave
have contributed some high level moisture as well. Light to moderate rain has been the result in the early
morning hours.

The flooding rain expected to materialize over the last 24 hours did not develop. Today, with
the threat of heavy rain decreased.. please note that we could still see upwards of additional
rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch today.. the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has allowed the Flash Flood Watch
to drop. Still, however, given the excessive rain in some areas last weekend, everyone
should continue to watch low water crossings and normally flood prone areas especially where
torrential rains fell this past weekend.

As the upper air disturbance departs off to our northeast by later today into tonight and we see
the greatest upward lift and dynamics go with it, rain chances will decrease. By tomorrow (Thursday),
clouds will break a bit by tonight into tomorrow with warmer afternoon high temperatures tomorrow.

Another front and associated atmospheric disturbance will cause increased/thickening clouds and
renewed relatively slim rain chances by Friday into early Saturday but, at this point, no significant
problems are expected.

This is my final statement on this particular weather situation.

…. Heavy Rain Threat Returns …. NWS Flash Flood Watch in Effect ….
…. Strong Cold Front Due Late Afternoon Rush Hour into Evening Hours Today / Tonight ….
…. Clouds and Lighter Rain Will Linger Across the Area into Wednesday Behind the Front ….

A strong cold front is moving across Texas on this Tuesday in combination with a west-to-east passing
strong upper air disturbance to our northwest. In addition, our atmosphere is very moist and unstable with
abundant low and mid level moisture off the Gulf of Mexico as well as pronounced contribution of
mid and upper level tropical moisture off  the Pacific  Ocean off the northwest coast of Mexico and a
tropical  system out there. Bottom line.. as the front and the upper air disturbance move across the
area later today through tonight and even back in the cooler air tomorrow and produces abundant and
dynamic lift in the atmosphere, there will be plenty of moisture for the system to take advantage of.
We can expect to see upwards of 1 to 3 inches of rain.. in general.. over the next 48 hours with some
isolated heavier totals possible. Here in the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center QPF Forecast
(valid this morning through 7am Thursday morning)…

The NWS/Austin-San Antonio has issued a flash flood watch valid for all of our local area through 7am
tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Areas in south and central parts of the Austin metro area where 12+ inches of rain
fell last weekend will be  most likely to see flooding problems develop.. but all areas will likely see urban and
small stream (low water crossing) flooding with this event. Remember..  “turn around, don’t drown”…  most,
if not all, flash flood deaths are preventable if you use common sense and avoid flood prone areas!!

One additional note.. forecasters at the NWS/Storm Prediction Center have mentioned a borderline damaging
straight line thunderstorm wind threat with a few of the thunderstorms later today that develop along and
ahead of the advancing cold front. This threat is very isolated and will occur where we get any breaks in the clouds
midday into afternoon today and surface heating is more efficient. Again, a borderline threat, but one, nevertheless,
I want you to be aware of…

Rain chances will linger into Wednesday.. back in the cooler air.. as the dynamics associated with upper air
system to the north lags just a bit behind the front itself. The chance of rain will diminish by tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow night with the return to perhaps a little sunshine on Thursday.

Another note.. this is the strongest cold front yet of the fall 2013 season. Temperature will fall tonight well into
the 50s.. with highs tomorrow, with lingering clouds and rain, struggling to rise only into the upper 50s to near 60
for afternoon highs. So, quite the (welcome) change!!

I’m attending National Weather Association Annual Meetings in Charleston SC.. but I’ll do what I can to
keep you informed with this weather event today into tonight and early Wednesday.