Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 06 March 2017

… Southerly Winds to Start the New Week …
… A Cold Front will Pass with Rain Chances Tomorrow Morning …
… A More Unsettled Weather Pattern by Late Week into the Weekend …

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is along the eastern seaboard of the USA with a developing low pressure over western South Dakota. A cold front extends from the low pressure area south southwestward into western Colorado and central Arizona into northwestern Mexico. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are light and variable.

As we start the new week, the developing surface low pressure area over the Rockies and plains states as well as the advancement eastward of the upper level trough of low pressure is resulting in a south southeasterly surface winds locally with abundant low level moisture being brought into central and eastern Texas. Temperatures will be unseasonably warm across Texas today through tomorrow.

By midday tomorrow, a surface cold front will move through our local area with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing along and just ahead of the front. As the wind shift moves through, we’ll see precipitation chances quickly ending as slightly cooler and drier air moves into the area.

A drier and slightly cooler air mass will take hold for Tuesday night into Wednesday as the surface high pressure area moves east of the area with a surface wind returning south southeasterly locally by Wednesday afternoon.

As these southerly low level winds return, a corresponding low level moisture return takes place late week into and through the weekend. However, with a more zonal (west-to-east) forecast upper air wind pattern, I do not see any frontal passages in the remainder of the 7 day forecast period (through the weekend). We’ll see late night and early morning low clouds with some light rain showers possible for the period but with the lack of atmospheric lifting mechanisms (fronts, etc), I expect the rain chances for any given location to remain quite slim.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 06 March 2017

TODAY….Partly to mostly cloudy. High 80. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with some patchy fog developing after midnight. Low 65. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Patchy morning fog.. otherwise mostly cloudy with scattered morning into midday rain showers and thunderstorms as a cold front passes southeastward through the area with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Becoming partly cloudy and less humid in the afternoon. High 77. Southwesterly wind shifting north northeasterly 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy and cooler. Low 51. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 72. Light northeasterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 10 mph by mid and late afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy. Low 62. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 66. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 78. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 65. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 77. Southerly wind 4 to 8 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 13 March 2017 through Sunday / 19 March 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (06 Mar)……………………………………………. 6:51 am
Sunset this evening (06 Mar)……………………………………………… 6:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (07 Mar)………………………………………………… 6:50 am
Sunset tomorrow (07 Mar)…………………………………………………. 6:34 pm

Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 02 March 2017

… A Mix of Clouds and Sunshine through Late Week …
… Clouds Thicken with Rain Chances for the Weekend …
… Our Next Cold Front Due Next Tuesday …

On this Thursday… a surface high pressure area is over southeastern Oklahoma. The cold front, that passed through our local area early yesterday, stretches from northern Florida west southwestward through the Gulf of Mexico then well south of Brownsville. As a result, our surface winds across south central Texas are north northeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a broad trough, or line, of upper air low pressure extends southward from Hudson Bay southward through the Mississippi Valley. Our upper level winds, at about 30,000 feet overhead, are westerly at around 100 mph.

Some mid and high level clouds continue across the area with cooler and drier conditions expected to continue through the end of the week.

In response to a passing upper air disturbance, a developing surface low pressure area, to our distant south along the weakening cold front, will move west to east with an overrunning pattern developing for the upcoming weekend. As a result, clouds and precipitation will spread northward through south Texas beginning Friday night and continuing through the weekend with most of the precipitation remaining to our south and southeast. Seven day rainfall, based on the latest NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance, will average around 1/2 inch.

Precipitation will taper off by Sunday night through Monday as the upper level system passes. In its wake, another surface cold front will move into Texas by early Tuesday morning.

In the wake of the front, drier and a little cooler air will filter into the area for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel

Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 02 March 2017

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 67. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 41. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

FRIDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 69. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming southeasterly by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Increasing and thickening clouds. Low 50. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 68. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 40% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 58. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. High 78. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY….Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 80. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk as a cold front passes after midnight. A 30% chance of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Low 59. Southerly wind becoming more southwesterly by midnight before shifting northerly 5 to 12 mph after 2am.

TUESDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny. Less humid and a little cooler. High 71. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more northeasterly in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 52. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 74. Light northeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly in the afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 09 March 2017 through Wednesday / 15 March 2017…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (02 Mar)……………………………………………. 6:56 am
Sunset this evening (02 Mar)……………………………………………… 6:31 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (03 Mar)………………………………………………… 6:55 am
Sunset tomorrow (03 Mar)…………………………………………………. 6:32 pm

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 01 March 2017 … Clouds and Higher Humidity … … A Cold Front Passes …

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Updated 915am CT – Tuesday / 28 February 2017 … Clouds and Higher Humidity … … A Cold Front Passes …

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Updated 915am CT – Monday / 27 February 2017 … More Clouds and Higher Humidity … … Another Low Pressure …

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