Updated 915am CT – Monday / 18 December 2017
… Clouds and Rain Chances On the Increase Again …
… Back to Sunshine by Middle to Late Part of Week …
… Cold Front Friday Morning Ushers in Cooler Air …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… surface high pressure is located over the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern USA. A weak area of surface low pressure is over southeastern Colorado with a trough, or line, of low pressure extending south southwestward into eastern New Mexico and far southwest Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are east northeasterly.
On the upper air map… a dynamic east southeastward moving upper level low is over southeastern Arizona, extreme southwestern New Mexico and northern Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are southwesterly at 75 to 85 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
In the wake of the weekend weather system and the 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts it brought to the area, the vigorous/dynamic upper air low pressure area to our west is poised to cross the area by late tonight through the day tomorrow. Rain showers and, yes, even a few thunderstorms (with an associated lightning risk) are possible across our area as it moves through the area creating abundant and dynamic atmospheric lift. Precipitation will taper off in the wake of the system tomorrow night with clouds decreasing by daybreak Wednesday. Current NWS/Weather Prediction Center guidance is suggesting another 1 to 2 inches of rain on average with isolated 3 inch totals before the system departs to the northeast by daybreak Wednesday.
Once we get into Wednesday and Thursday, I expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures.
I continue to watch the manual guidance as well as the numerical forecast guidance as it continues to suggest a trend toward cooler weather and perhaps a wetter weather pattern beginning on Friday as an initial cold front moves southeastward across the area. The initial cold front is not as strong as we thought it would be last week although temperatures will turn back cooler than average Friday through Saturday with the chance of rain tapering off by late Friday.
A secondary cold front, stronger in nature, will arrive Saturday night with additional cooling of temperatures Sunday into Monday (Christmas Day). At this point, it looks like any chance of precipitation will stay very slim.. in fact, I won’t even mention any precipitation chances in the forecast at this point. However, given the fact that many people will be traveling during this upcoming holiday period, you can be assured that I will be watching the forecast pattern closely for you.
Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
—
Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 18 December 2017
TODAY…. Mostly cloudy with patchy fog. Scattered patches of rain developing in the afternoon. A 30% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. High 63. Light northeasterly wind becoming east southeasterly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
TONIGHT…. Cloudy with patchy fog. Scattered rain showers becoming more numerous after midnight with a few thunderstorms possible with an associated lightning risk. An 80% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 56. Light east southeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Patchy fog before midday. Cloudy with occasional rain showers and a few thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 90% chance of rain; rainfall will average 1/2 to 1 inch with some isolated heavier totals to 2 inches. Rain chances will diminish after 4pm. High 66. Light east northeasterly wind becoming more west southwesterly in the afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Decreasing clouds early with partly cloudy skies after midnight. Some patchy fog developing. Low 49. West northwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little bit warmer. High 73. Light west northwesterly wind becoming southerly 4 to 8 mph in the afternoon.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 50. South southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 75. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds early becoming mostly cloudy with a few rain showers developing after midnight. A 20% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 60. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.
FRIDAY…. Mostly cloudy and turning a bit cooler in the wake of a morning/midday cold front. Scattered rain showers. A 30% chance of rain; where it occurs, it will average 1/4 inch or less. High 64. Southwesterly wind early becoming north northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the cold front passes.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles early with only trace amounts expected. Low 42. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 55. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 40. Northeasterly wind becoming more north northwesterly and increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 49. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 25 December 2017 through Sunday / 31 December 2017…
Temperature… Well Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 December)………………………………. 7:22 am
Sunset this evening (18 December)………………………………… 5:34 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (19 December)…………………………………… 7:22 am
Sunset tomorrow (19 December)……………………………………. 5:34 pm