Updated 915am CT – Thursday / 14 December 2017
… High Level Cloud Cover Comes and Goes …
… Clouds and Rain Chances Increase Over the Weekend …
… Back to Sunshine by Early to Middle Part of Next Week …
… Longer Range Guidance Suggesting Colder Temps by Christmas Weekend …
On the Weather Map…
On the surface map… a weak cold front is moving southeastward from northern Mississippi and the ArkLaTex region to overhead of the south central Texas area then into far west Texas and southern New Mexico. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds across south central Texas are picking up from the north northwest as the front passes through.
On the upper air map… a broad trough, or line, of upper level low pressure covers the eastern two thirds of the USA. Within the upper level counterclockwise flow around the trough, a low pressure disturbance is slowly moving east southeastward from western Kansas into the four corners region then into north and western parts of Mexico. As a result of this upper air weather pattern, the 30,000 foot winds over our area are southwesterly and have increased to 120 to 130 mph.
What I am Seeing As I Look Ahead…
We’ve been fighting upper level cloud cover over the last 24 to 48 hours as the very strong subtropical jetstream winds overhead (with winds of 120 to 130 mph from the southwest) race northeastward. We’ll see those high clouds come and go today into tonight as well.
By tomorrow night and continuing into Saturday and Saturday night, the upper level trough, or line, of upper level low pressure out west will move overhead of our Austin and south central Texas area. As it does, we’ll be a more dynamic atmosphere develop with rain showers and even a few thunderstorms become more widespread late tomorrow night into Saturday and Saturday night. Rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch is possible with the passage of the upper air storm system.
As the system passes, we’ll see the return to at least some sunshine Sunday into the first part of next week as another cold front passes early Monday. While there looks like some cloud cover will linger until the front moves through the area Monday but I am not mentioning any rain chances at this point.
The middle part of next week looks dry and a little bit warmer.
Looking ahead.. beyond the seven day forecast period.. some of the numerical forecast guidance is suggesting a trend toward colder weather once we get into the weekend before Christmas. At this point, that is about all I’ll mention as precipitation chances are still quite uncertain and vary widely among the models. I would caution everyone from getting carried away with any given forecast solutions that you may see in social media since this is still 8 to 10 days away. Given the fact that many people will be traveling during this upcoming holiday period, you can be assured that I will be watching the forecast pattern closely for you.
Have a good Thursday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel
—
Updated 845am CT.. Thursday / 14 December 2017
TODAY…. Partly cloudy. High 65. Light wind becoming northerly 4 to 8 mph as a weak cold front passes.
TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 41. Northerly wind 4 to 8 mph.
FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 59. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
FRIDAY NIGHT…. Becoming cloudy. Low 40. Light northeasterly wind becoming light and variable late.
SATURDAY…. Cloudy and cooler. Scattered rain showers developing in the morning and then even a few thunderstorms in the afternoon with an associated lightning risk. A 50% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, rainfall will average 1/4 inch. High 55. Light wind becoming south southeasterly 4 to 8 mph by afternoon.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers likely. A few thunderstorms possible with an associated lightning risk. A 70% chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 1/4 inch. Rainfall tapering off after midnight. Low 44. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more westerly late.
SUNDAY…. Decreasing clouds early becoming mostly sunny. High 67. Southwesterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Becoming partly cloudy as a weak cold front passes after midnight and toward daybreak. Low 47. Southerly wind becoming northerly 5 to 10 mph after midnight.
MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 65. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 43. Light northeasterly wind.
TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 67. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 44. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly after midnight.
WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little bit warmer. High 69. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Thursday / 21 December 2017 through Wednesday / 27 December 2017…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (14 December)………………………………. 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (14 December)………………………………… 5:32 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (15 December)…………………………………… 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (15 December)……………………………………. 5:32 pm