Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Monday / 01 June 2020 ….

      
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

.. Dangerous Lightning with any Thunderstorms Today into Tonight ..

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES…

.. Rain Showers and Thunderstorms Possible Over Next 24 Hours ..
.. Continuing to Monitor the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico ..

(1) An upper level low pressure area, currently located over southwest Texas, is resulting in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over south Texas this morning and will result in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms today into tonight and tomorrow for our local area.

(2) An upper level high pressure, acting like a “lid” of the atmosphere, will result in a dry and stable late spring/early summer weather pattern beginning late tomorrow through the balance of the week and into the weekend. Rain chances will drop from the forecast locally as temperatures warm a bit.

(3) I continue to monitor the latest NWS/National Hurricane Center guidance regarding the likelihood of tropical cyclone development later this week into the weekend over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the adjoining Bay of Campeche. It’s too early to say where this system, if it develops, will end up. As a result, I’m not including any effects in the forecast locally at this time. In addition, please remember to disregard “click bait” social media entries of what one atmospheric computer model / model guidance spaghetti plot says. You should really only trust information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center and local NWS offices.  

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated  Monday / 01 June 2020

TODAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 50%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average 0.25 to 0.50 inch. High 86. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph with winds gusty and variable around thunderstorms.

TONIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms mainly before 9pm with an associated lightning risk. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. Low 69. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light overnight.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning risk. A 20%chance of rain; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 89. Light wind becoming southeasterly 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 70. Light southeasterly wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 91. Light wind early becoming south southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 71. Light southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY…. Brief morning low clouds.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 92. Light south southeasterly wind.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 72. Light southeasterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine and warmer. High 96. Light east southeasterly wind.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light east southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 97. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 74. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY….  Sunshine. High 98. Easterly wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK          
Valid Monday / 08 June 2020 through Sunday / 14 June 2020…
Temperatures… Above Average   
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (01 June)………………………………….. 6:30 am
Sunset this evening (01 June)……………………………………. 8:28 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (02 June)………………………………………. 6:29 am
Sunset tomorrow (02 June)……………………………………….. 8:29 pm

ALL / Austin, Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #1
Prepared by UT University/Incident Response Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
200pm CT – Sunday / 31 May 2020

… NWS/National Hurricane Center Monitoring the Bay of Campache and
Southwestern Gulf of Mexico …

At this point, my thoughts…

Here are the things we can say..
.. the expected rain over the next few days (1-4 days) are more the direct result of
an area of low pressure along the Rio Grande River in the vicinity of Laredo, not because
of the area the NWS/National Hurricane Center is watching. This system is expected to shift
slowly westward into Mexico over the next few days before opening up into more of a trough,
or line of low pressure, over west/southwest Texas by mid week
.. let’s increase our awareness of the system over Guatemala and the possibility of future
development. See the latest NWS/National Hurricane Center official tropical weather outlook
graphic/text below..

Here are the things it is entirely too early to say..
.. exactly how things will unfold locally in the 5-7 day forecast period
(at this point, the 5 to 7 day forecast locally is low confidence at best)
.. whether or not this system over Guatemala develops into a system that ultimately affects Texas
.. if it does, exactly where or at what strength it will be as it comes ashore

In the next few days, I caution everyone to NOT concentrate on one computer
model / spaghetti model solutions just because it is being peddled on social media ONLY
because it looks sexy (heard of “click bait”?). Let’s closely monitor the official
guidance/information from the NWS/National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov)
as well as our local Texas NWS offices such as NWS/Austin-San Antonio (https://www.weather.gov/ewx/).

I’ll continue to monitor..
tk

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for 
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Amanda, centered inland over 
eastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or 
dissipate by tonight. However, the remnants of Amanda are expected 
to move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather, 
and could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If 
the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear 
conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression 
could form while the system moves little through the middle of this 
week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is 
likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El 
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For 
additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from 
your national meteorological service. The next Special Tropical 
Weather Outlook will be by 9 PM EDT tonight, or earlier if 
necessary. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan