Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin & South Central Texas Forecast (Mon/18Jun2012)

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Updated 130pm CDT.. Monday / 18 June 2012

TODAY…. Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 91 to 95. Southeasterly wind 8 to18 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with low clouds developing late. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 91 to 95. Southeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Low 70 to 74. Southeasterly wind 8 to 18 mph. Rainfall.. where it occurs.. will average 1/4 inch.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. High 89 to 93.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Low 70 to 74.

THURSDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 91 to 95.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 71 to 75.

FRIDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 92 to 96.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 72 to 76.

SATURDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 93 to 97.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early.. low clouds late. Low 72 to 76.

SUNDAY…. Morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 93 to 97.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Mon / 25 June 2012 through Sun / 12 July 2012…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 June)……………….. 6:23 am
Sunset this evening (18 June)…………………. 8:30 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (19 June)…………………….. 6:23 am
Sunset Tuesday (19 June)……………………… 8:31 pm

….AUSTIN AREA POLLEN COUNT….
…RECORDED MONDAY / 18 JUNE 2012…
(Note: This is the most recent report that has been provided.
This count is updated as provided on weekdays only and is
courtesy of Austin Allergy Associates and Dr. T. Ray Vaughn
and Dr. P. Dennis Dyer)

Molds….. 2026 gr/cubic meter (High) – Up Since Last Reading
Grasses….. 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
Weeds…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Weeds:
…None Reported …
Trees…… 0 gr/cubic meter (Low) – Down Since Last Reading
…Breakdown of Trees:
…None Reported…

TK’s Weather Discussion (Mon/18Jun2012)

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Updated 130pm CDT Monday / 18 June 2012

…. Typical Summer Like Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Rain Chances Increase by Mid Week in a More Unstable Environment ….
…. Longer Range Guidance Suggests A Developing Gulf System by the Weekend ….

On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southwestward from western Kansas into northwest Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southeasterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure has settled more to the west of the area over north central and northwestern Mexico. Several small upper air low pressure disturbances.. including one associated with the overnight rain shower and thunderstorm activity to our northwest.. are located across Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are variable over our area.

The weak disturbances will be a factor across the area although the rain chances through tonight will be primarily south and southeast of the local area. By tomorrow into Wednesday, the general low pressure disturbance will likely settle further westward with our atmosphere becoming more unsettled. As a result, I’ll increase rain chances although I’m not excited about the rain chances or the forecast rainfall amounts overall. The latest NWS rainfall guidance suggests rainfall amounts only around a quarter of an inch. Clouds will, of course, will be a little more prevalent as well.

By late week into the weekend, the upper level high pressure area.. to the west.. will expand back toward the east resulting in lowered rain chances and less in the way of cloud cover.

A quick note to acknowledge that some of the models have come into agreement in forecasting the development of a surface low in the Bay of Campache / southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I’ll keep an eye on this part of the forecast but right now, I think it’s too early to make a call on any potential effects late in the weekend into early next week.

By the way, summer officially begins at 6:09pm on Wednesday as the Summer Solstice occurs.

For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the 70s. Southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s. Southeasterly wind.

Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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