Updated 130pm CDT Monday / 18 June 2012
…. Typical Summer Like Weather Pattern Continues ….
…. Rain Chances Increase by Mid Week in a More Unstable Environment ….
…. Longer Range Guidance Suggests A Developing Gulf System by the Weekend ….
On this Monday… a surface high pressure area is over the southeastern USA with a trough.. or line.. of surface low pressure extending southwestward from western Kansas into northwest Texas and New Mexico. As a result of this pressure pattern, a southeasterly surface wind is prevailing across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure has settled more to the west of the area over north central and northwestern Mexico. Several small upper air low pressure disturbances.. including one associated with the overnight rain shower and thunderstorm activity to our northwest.. are located across Texas. As a result of the upper air wind flow, the upper level winds are variable over our area.
The weak disturbances will be a factor across the area although the rain chances through tonight will be primarily south and southeast of the local area. By tomorrow into Wednesday, the general low pressure disturbance will likely settle further westward with our atmosphere becoming more unsettled. As a result, I’ll increase rain chances although I’m not excited about the rain chances or the forecast rainfall amounts overall. The latest NWS rainfall guidance suggests rainfall amounts only around a quarter of an inch. Clouds will, of course, will be a little more prevalent as well.
By late week into the weekend, the upper level high pressure area.. to the west.. will expand back toward the east resulting in lowered rain chances and less in the way of cloud cover.
A quick note to acknowledge that some of the models have come into agreement in forecasting the development of a surface low in the Bay of Campache / southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I’ll keep an eye on this part of the forecast but right now, I think it’s too early to make a call on any potential effects late in the weekend into early next week.
By the way, summer officially begins at 6:09pm on Wednesday as the Summer Solstice occurs.
For Austin and south central Texas… tonight will be partly cloudy with lows in the 70s. Southeasterly wind. For tomorrow, morning low clouds becoming partly cloudy with isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s. Southeasterly wind.
Have a good Monday night and Tuesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@mail.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel