Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast…

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Updated 845am CDT.. Wednesday / 23 October 2013

TODAY…. Sunshine. High 76 to 80. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT….  Mostly clear. Low 49 to 53. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny and a little more humid. High 79 to 83. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 52 to 56. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 76 to 80. Variable winds early becoming southerly 5 to 10 mph by late in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles developing after midnight. Low 53 to 57. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers.. where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 76 to 80. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers.. where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 57 to 61. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of rain showers mainly before noon.. where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 1/4 inch. High 77 to 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 59 to 63. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Some morning low clouds.. otherwise partly cloudy. High 78 to 82. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 61 to 65. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds. otherwise partly cloudy. High 80 to 84. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 30 October 2013  through Tuesday / 5 November 2013…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 October)………………………………. 7:39 am
Sunset this evening (23 October)……………………………….. 6:51 pm
Sunrise Thursday (24 October)…………………………………… 7:39 am
Sunset Thursday (24 October)……………………………………. 6:50 pm

…. Time Change Coming Up ….
Central Daylight Time (CDT) back to Central Standard Time (CST)
at 2am on Sunday, 3 November 2013 when you should turn clocks
back to 1am (“fall back”). We gain our hour back that we lost in the
spring when we went from CST to CDT.

TK’s Weather Discussion…

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Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 23 October 2013

…. Little Change in the Weather Pattern (For Now!!) ….

On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from middle Tennessee into southern Arkansas then northwestward as a stationary from central Oklahoma into western Kansas. A surface high pressure area is over the Rio Grande River in the vicinity of Laredo.  A weak trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward through the plains states from western Oklahoma into west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from eastern Canada into the eastern two thirds of the USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.

A stable weather pattern continues across south central Texas. As low pressure deepens to the west a more southerly surface wind wil become reestablished across the area today through tomorrow with a slow return of gulf moisture.

By early Friday, a weakening “back door” type cold front, moving into Texas more from the northeast, will settle south southwestward into our area before it washes out in advance of a stronger low pressure storm system expected to be moving into the southwestern USA by then. Low level moisture will increase rapidly by Friday night into Saturday so, as that next upper air system moves across Texas over the weekend, we’ll see rain chances pop return to the forecast for our area.

We’ll see the rain chances decrease as the upper air storm system moves off to the northeast and the weather pattern stabilizes by early next week with a decrease in clouds and rain chances and return to more sunshine for the area.

Looking out even further, by the middle and latter part of next week, a potent low pressure storm system is forecast to move eastward through the central and southern plains states with a return to rain and thunderstorm chances along with the passage of a stronger cold front by next Thursday or Thursday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then moderate to high confidence for the weekend into the middle part of next week as it regards the progress and timing of upper air low pressure and fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.

Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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