Updated 845am CDT Wednesday / 23 October 2013
…. Little Change in the Weather Pattern (For Now!!) ….
On this Wednesday morning…. a cold front extends southwestward from middle Tennessee into southern Arkansas then northwestward as a stationary from central Oklahoma into western Kansas. A surface high pressure area is over the Rio Grande River in the vicinity of Laredo. A weak trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward through the plains states from western Oklahoma into west Texas. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are light southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a eastward moving trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extends southward from eastern Canada into the eastern two thirds of the USA. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are northwesterly at 10 to 20 mph.
A stable weather pattern continues across south central Texas. As low pressure deepens to the west a more southerly surface wind wil become reestablished across the area today through tomorrow with a slow return of gulf moisture.
By early Friday, a weakening “back door” type cold front, moving into Texas more from the northeast, will settle south southwestward into our area before it washes out in advance of a stronger low pressure storm system expected to be moving into the southwestern USA by then. Low level moisture will increase rapidly by Friday night into Saturday so, as that next upper air system moves across Texas over the weekend, we’ll see rain chances pop return to the forecast for our area.
We’ll see the rain chances decrease as the upper air storm system moves off to the northeast and the weather pattern stabilizes by early next week with a decrease in clouds and rain chances and return to more sunshine for the area.
Looking out even further, by the middle and latter part of next week, a potent low pressure storm system is forecast to move eastward through the central and southern plains states with a return to rain and thunderstorm chances along with the passage of a stronger cold front by next Thursday or Thursday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence through Friday.. then moderate to high confidence for the weekend into the middle part of next week as it regards the progress and timing of upper air low pressure and fronts over the southern plains and any associated rain chances.
Have a good Wednesday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel