Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 2 December 2013

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 77 to 81. South southwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 53 to 57. South southwesterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Patchy morning clouds and fog.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 80 to 84. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy early with a mostly cloudy sky after midnight. Low 60 to 64. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly cloudy and not quite so warm with a less than 20% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will be less than a tenth of an inch. High 74 to 78. Southerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 57 to 61. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. A cloudy sky with a 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch. Turning cooler as a cold front passes in the afternoon. High 68 to 72 in the morning with temperatures falling into the 50s by late afternoon. Southwesterly winds becoming north northwesterly 15 to 25 mph by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy.. windy and much colder with a 40% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 34 to 38. North northwesterly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy.. windy and unseasonably cold with a 40% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average one tenth of an inch or less. Temperatures will hold steady in the upper 30s to near 40. Northerly wind 15 to 25 mph and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Periods of freezing rain possible after 10pm. Low 29 to 33. Northerly wind decreasing to 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Cloudy and unseasonably cold with a 30% chance of rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Periods of freezing rain possible before noon and again late in the afternoon. Highs 34 to 38. North northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with a 30% chance of freezing rain.. rainfall, where it occurs, will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Little ice accumulation. Low 28 to 32. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Cloudy with a 30% chance of freezing rain before 12 noon.. then a 30% chance of rain in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs, will average only a few hundredths of an inch. High 35 to 39. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 9 December 2013  through Sunday / 15 December 2013…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (2 December)………………………………. 7:11am
Sunset this evening (2 December)………………………………… 5:30 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (3 December)……………………………………. 7:12 am
Sunset Tuesday (3 December)…………………………………….. 5:30 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT Monday / 2 December 2013

…. Unseasonably Warm Over the Day or So ….
…. Massive Arctic High to Move into Central USA by End of Week ….
…. Chance of Freezing Precipitation Again by Late Friday into Next Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. an eastward moving surface high pressure is over the southeastern USA with a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado. Another high pressure area is over the four corners region. As a result of this surface weather pattern, surface winds are south southwesterly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a trough, or line, of low pressure trough is over the eastern third of the USA while another intense upper level low moving slowly southeastward over British Columbia and the Pacific northwest. As a result, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly 30 to 40 mph.

As we start the new week, a south southwesterly surface wind and a mostly dry and stable weather pattern continues with plenty of sunshine and well above average temperatures expected over the next couple of days. With increased low level moisture, we’ve seen and may see over the next few days a little patchy morning low clouds and fog.

By mid into late week, we’ll transition to a more northerly wind aloft as an area of low pressure moves from the Rockies into the plains states. A massive area of arctic high pressure.. now located over northwest Canada and eastern Alaska with surface temperatures underneath the high as cold as -40 F.. will break loose and will surge southward into the western and central USA. By Friday into the weekend, the leading edge cold front will move well into the Gulf of Mexico and the arctic air mass will overtake much of the lower 48 states.

As the colder surface air moves in, the subtropical jet stream (higher in the atmosphere) off the tropical Pacific, will send disturbances overhead and will create an overrunning pattern where moisture comes back on top of the colder air. As the upper air disturbances move overhead, they will cause atmospheric lift with periods of precipitation possible back in the colder air. With temperatures expected to be near or even slightly below freezing, especially in the overnight hours, we could see periods of freezing drizzle and freezing rain given the very shallow layer of surface based arctic air. I’ll continue to watch these precipitation prospects closely.

The cloudy and unseasonably cold weather pattern will likely persist into early next week before a warm up kicks in once again.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: Very high forecast confidence into Wednesday.. then dropping to medium to high later Wednesday into Thursday (exact frontal passage time and rain chances along front being the question). For Friday through the weekend, my forecast confidence drops to low to medium with the main questions being the intensity of the cold air along with liquid/freezing precipitation chances.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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