Updated 845am CT Monday / 27 January 2014

…. Potential Winter Weather Event Late Tonight through Tuesday Night ….
…. Sunshine Returns with a Slow Warming Trend Mid into Late Week ….
…. Slim Rain Chances By The Weekend ….

On this Monday morning…. an arctic cold front is moving south across Texas south of the Austin area. Arctic high pressure is centered.. to our north.. over the Dakotas and central Canada with widespread below zero temperatures south through Nebraska and teens southward into Kansas and Oklahoma. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our surface winds are gusty northerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… a massive.. broad counterclockwise rotating upper level low pressure is centered over the eastern and central Canada and covers the entire USA. Within this broad upper level counterclockwise upper air wind flow.. a  strong upper air disturbances is over southern California and northwestern Mexico. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are west northwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.

The strong arctic cold front has now moved well south of our area as much colder surface high pressure settles southward through Texas. We’re also seeing the influence of the upper air disturbance to our west as well as the subtropical jet stream which is causing mid and high level moisture to overrun the colder air. As the strong upper air disturbances approach us and move overhead and create atmospheric lift tonight into  tomorrow, we’ll see a little better chance of light precipitation with much colder temperatures. As temperatures fall below freezing this evening, we’ll see the possibility of light sleet and snow with the possibility of patchy freezing rain; the precipitation will continue through the morning into midday hours tomorrow. Some very light snow and sleet accumulations are possible. As afternoon temperatures rise slightly above freezing, we’ll likely see the precipitation transition back to some light rain tomorrow afternoon.

As the upper level disturbances depart the area by afternoon tomorrow into tomorrow night, a more stable weather pattern will develop.. with abundant sunshine and a slow warming trend returning by Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

Clouds return with slim chances by the weekend.

Longer range guidance suggests another strong cold front will arrive early next week with some models suggesting another winter storm for the southern plains states.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high today.. then falling to low to medium tonight through tomorrow (still some lingering questions on precipitation types – freezing or frozen – as well as amounts/accumulations and the associated impact). My forecast confidence rises back to high to very high for Wednesday into Friday and into next weekend.

Have a good Monday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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