Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 7 March 2014

TODAY…. A partly cloudy sky into the early afternoon.. then increasing and thickening clouds. High 67 to 71. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy. Low 51 to 55. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers  developing by midday into the afternoon as a cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 63 to 67. Southerly wind 8 to 18 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph..

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A cloudy sky and cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Low 41 to 45. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 50% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4  inch. High 53 to 57. Northerly wind 8 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles until midnight. Low 41 to 45. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY…. Mostly cloudy early becoming partly cloudy by afternoon.  High 66 to 70. Easterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southeasterly by afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 46 to 50. Southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 75 to 79. South southeasterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 43 to 47. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting northerly 8 to 15 mph with cold frontal passage around midnight.

WEDNESDAY…. Mostly sunny and cooler. High 63 to 67. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 40 to 44. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 63 to 66. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 14 March 2014 through Thursday / 20 March 2014…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Slightly Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (07 March)……………………………… 6:50 am
Sunset this evening (07 March)………………………………. 6:34 pm
Sunrise Saturday (08 March)………………………………….. 6:49 am
Sunset Saturday (08 March)…………………………………… 6:35 pm

…. Time Change Coming Up ….
Central Standard Time (CST) back to Central Daylight Time (CDT)
at 2am on Sunday, 9 March 2014 when you should turn clocks
up one hour to 3am (“spring forward”). We lose an hour that we’ll
gain back at 2am on Sunday, 2 November 2014 when we move
back our clocks again as we go back to central standard time (CST).

…. Change of Seasons Coming Up ….
We will experience the Vernal Equinox on Thursday / 20 March at
11:57am CDT.. this denotes the official beginning of the spring season.

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 845am CT – Friday / 7 March 2014

…. Clouds and Better Rain/Thunderstorm Chances Into Our Weekend ….
…. A Little Cooler Late in the Weekend into Early Next Week ….
…. Sunshine Returns Next Week ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area /1019mb/ is over the lower Mississippi valley and Louisiana. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a surface low /1001mb/ over southeastern Colorado and southwest Kansas into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A southeastward series of cold fronts extends from Nebraska and Wyoming into western Colorado and Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly across our area.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an eastward moving trough.. or line.. of low pressure disturbance is over the southeastern USA while another broad trough is developing over the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.

With the approach of the developing upper air low pressure trough over the western USA combined with the associated surface cold front over the Rockies, clouds and moisture are increasing across our area of Texas. With the increased low level moisture and associated lift and instability, we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the midday to afternoon hours tomorrow and continuing through the cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon.

Post frontal clouds and rain chances.. along with much cooler temperatures.. will linger into Sunday before breaking by Sunday night into Monday.

More sunshine and warmer temperatures will prevail for Monday into Tuesday before another cold front moves through the area late Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a bit for the middle part of next week following the Tuesday night cold front with plenty of sunshine for next Wednesday and Thursday.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through today and tonight. My forecast confidence falls back to medium to high for tomorrow through Sunday (rainfall amounts and exact frontal passage time being the issue).. with forecast confidence going back to high to very high by Monday through Thursday.

Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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