Updated 845am CT – Friday / 7 March 2014
…. Clouds and Better Rain/Thunderstorm Chances Into Our Weekend ….
…. A Little Cooler Late in the Weekend into Early Next Week ….
…. Sunshine Returns Next Week ….
On this Friday morning…. a surface high pressure area /1019mb/ is over the lower Mississippi valley and Louisiana. A trough.. or line.. of low pressure extends south southwestward from a surface low /1001mb/ over southeastern Colorado and southwest Kansas into west Texas and eastern New Mexico. A southeastward series of cold fronts extends from Nebraska and Wyoming into western Colorado and Utah. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly across our area.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere… an eastward moving trough.. or line.. of low pressure disturbance is over the southeastern USA while another broad trough is developing over the southwestern USA. As a result of this upper air wind pattern, the upper level winds over south central Texas and the Austin metro area about 18,000 feet above the ground are westerly at 25 to 35 mph.
With the approach of the developing upper air low pressure trough over the western USA combined with the associated surface cold front over the Rockies, clouds and moisture are increasing across our area of Texas. With the increased low level moisture and associated lift and instability, we’ll see scattered rain showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as the midday to afternoon hours tomorrow and continuing through the cold frontal passage tomorrow afternoon.
Post frontal clouds and rain chances.. along with much cooler temperatures.. will linger into Sunday before breaking by Sunday night into Monday.
More sunshine and warmer temperatures will prevail for Monday into Tuesday before another cold front moves through the area late Tuesday. Temperatures will cool a bit for the middle part of next week following the Tuesday night cold front with plenty of sunshine for next Wednesday and Thursday.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My confidence in my forecast is high to very high through today and tonight. My forecast confidence falls back to medium to high for tomorrow through Sunday (rainfall amounts and exact frontal passage time being the issue).. with forecast confidence going back to high to very high by Monday through Thursday.
Have a good Friday…
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel