Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

A Dry and Stable Weather Pattern with Higher Wildfire Danger Today (We/22Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Wednesday / 22 September 2021

  
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Wildfire Danger Today with Gusty Northerly Wind and Low Relative Humidity…

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) As surface high pressure settles in over the area in the wake of yesterday afternoon’s cold front, a dry and stable early fall weather pattern prevails over the next few days. Gusty winds, lower humidity and dry vegetation will result in higher wildfire danger locally.

(2) With the surface high moving east of the area by Friday into the weekend, southerly surface winds return, temperatures will warm once again to above seasonal averages by the weekend into early next week with abundant sunshine.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting little in the way of rainfall.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very high confidence through Tuesday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Wednesday / 22 September 2021

TODAY…. Sunshine and breezy. Less humid. Wildfire fire danger. High 86. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

TONIGHT…. Clear. Low 56. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming calm.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 88. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 57. Light easterly wind becoming southeasterly late.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 90. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 59. Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 92. Light southwesterly wind early becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Light south southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 93. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 66. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny early becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 93. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 70. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TUESDAY…. Some morning low clouds otherwise partly cloudy. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. Given a 20% chance of rain, where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 90. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Wednesday / 29 September 2021 through Tuesday / 05 October 2021…
Temperatures… Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (22 September)…………………………………… 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (22 September)…………………………………….. 7:27 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (23 September)……………………………………….. 7:20 am
Sunset tomorrow (23 September)………………………………………… 7:26 pm

Cold Front on the Way!! Cooler and Drier Air Settling in by Tonight into Tomorrow.. (Tu/21Sep2021)

Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Tuesday / 21 September 2021

  
Contact me:
[email protected]
[email protected]

On Twitter, follow me and
activate notifications for my tweets…
@troykimmelwx

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…

… Lightning Risk Around Thunderstorms This Afternoon …
… Strong, Gusty and Variable Winds Around Thunderstorms This Afternoon …

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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …

(1) A south southeastward moving cold front will advance through the area this afternoon and then move to off  the Texas coast and south Texas by later tonight. Rain chances will increase a bit as the front approaches later this afternoon and passes to our southeast; cooler temperatures will prevail for the middle part of week as skies clear tonight into tomorrow.

(2) As surface high pressure moves east of the area, southerly surface winds return, temperatures will warm once again to near to even slightly above seasonal averages by the weekend with abundant sunshine.

NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting rainfall amounts of less than 0.25″ inch.

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
Very high confidence through Monday.

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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Tuesday / 21 September 2021

TODAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes by mid afternoon. A 30% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph shifting north northwesterly 10 to 20 mph and gusty in the mid to late afternoon hours.

TONIGHT…. Partly cloudy early then mostly clear. Breezy and cooler. Low 62. North northwesterly wind 10 to 20 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY…. Sunshine. Less humid. High 86. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph with some higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 56. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 88. Northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more easterly by afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 57. Light easterly wind.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 90. Easterly wind early becoming more southerly by afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Clear. Low 59. Light southeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 93. Light southwesterly wind early becoming south southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 63. Light south southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 94. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 65. Light southeasterly wind.

MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 93. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK           
Valid Tuesday / 28 September 2021 through Monday / 04 October 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average  
Precipitation…  Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (21 September)…………………………………… 7:19 am
Sunset this evening (21 September)…………………………………….. 7:28 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (22 September)……………………………………….. 7:19 am
Sunset tomorrow (22 September)………………………………………… 7:27 pm