Audio Weather Webcast
(Includes My Complete Forecast Reasoning)
Updated Friday / 17 September 2021
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tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
troy@troykimmelweather.com
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS
WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH 12 MIDNIGHT TONIGHT…
… No Hazards Expected …
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AUSTIN / UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WEATHER
SEVEN DAY WEATHER HEADLINES
AND MY 7 DAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE …
(1) A dry and stable weather pattern continues into the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will be warming back well above seasonal, perhaps record high, temperatures today into the weekend with afternoon heat index values back in the 100 to 104 F range.
(2) A few of the atmospheric forecast computer models are suggesting isolated to widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again tomorrow (Saturday) afternoon but I expect them to remain generally well east through southeast and south of our local area and therefore, I am not including rain chances in my IH35 corridor forecast.
(3) A slightly more unstable air mass, with a more pronounced moist surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico and weak cold front moving into west Texas, will result in increased humidity by Monday and then the return to better rain chances by Tuesday.
(4) In a increasingly higher confidence forecast, the south southeastward moving cold front will advance through the area late Tuesday and then move to near the Texas coast and south Texas thereafter. Rain chances will increase a bit as the front approaches and passes to our southeast; cooler temperatures will prevail for the latter part of next week as skies clear.
NWS/Weather Prediction Center rainfall guidance, over the next seven days, is predicting rainfall amounts of less than 0.25″ inch.
MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS…
High to very high confidence through Tuesday with medium to high confidence Wednesday through Thursday.
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Troy’s Weather Forecast for Austin and South Central Texas
Updated Friday / 17 September 2021
TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 98. Light wind becoming east northeasterly 4 to 8 mph.
TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Easterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming light.
SATURDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Light wind becoming north northeasterly 5 to 10 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. Light east northeasterly wind becoming calm.
SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 95. Calm wind becoming east northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 73. East southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph becoming more south southeasterly late.
MONDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 97. Southerly wind increasing to 8 to 15 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 74. Southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
TUESDAY…. Some early morning low clouds then partly cloudy. Widely scattered afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 95. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat as a cold front passes. A 40% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.25 inch. Low 69. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph shifting northwesterly 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY…. Widely scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with an associated lightning threat before 8am. Mostly sunny and less humid. A 20% chance of rain at any given location; where rainfall occurs, it will average less than 0.10 inch. High 87. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 61. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY…. Sunshine. High 88. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 24 September 2021 through Thursday / 30 September 2021…
Temperatures… Slightly Above Average
Precipitation… Slightly Below Average
AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (17 September)…………………………………… 7:17 am
Sunset this evening (17 September)…………………………………….. 7:33 pm
Sunrise tomorrow (18 September)……………………………………….. 7:17 am
Sunset tomorrow (18 September)………………………………………… 7:32 pm