Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Friday / 05 December 2014

TODAY…. Patchy morning fog and drizzle. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average 1/4 inch. High 74. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy and a little cooler with widely scattered rain showers as a weak cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 56. Southerly wind becoming westerly 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy and not quite as warm. High 67. North northwesterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Becoming mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 56. North northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain, will average less than 1/4 of an inch. High 60. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain, will average less than 1/10th of an inch. Low 51. Light northeasterly wind becoming calm by midnight.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 10% chance of rain, will average trace amounts. High 65. Light wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 50. Light wind.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 64. Light wind.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 50. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/10th of an inch. High 65. Light wind.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/10th of an inch. Low 51. Light wind.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain, will average 1/10th of an inch. High 64. Light wind.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Friday / 12 December 2014 through Thursday / 18 December 2014…
Temperature… Above Average
Precipitation… Above Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (05 December)…………………………………………… 7:13 am
Sunset this evening (05 December)……………………………………………. 5:30 pm
Sunrise Saturday (06 December)……………………………………………….. 7:14 am
Sunset Saturday (06 December)……………………………………………….. 5:30 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 800am CT – Friday / 05 December 2014

…. Clouds and Warmer Temperatures ….
…. Lingering Rain Chances ….

On this Friday morning…. a surface warm front extends from a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado southeastward along the Red River and into southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure area is located over Hudson Bay in Canada with much of the USA in a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern. An upper air low pressure system is moving eastward through the eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly 40 to 50 mph.

Warmer air continues to move northward across the area. Even so, abundant low level moisture and clouds will remain in place for the coming days. With the increasingly moist and slightly more unstable air mass, we will continue to see the chance of rain.. rain showers and even a thunderstorm or two for the next 24 hours or so as temperatures rebound back to slightly above seasonal levels.

Another weak cold frontal passage is seen by tonight into the predawn hours Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures into the weekend. While we may see a little sunshine on Saturday, overrunning moisture will continue with clouds persisting through much of weekend and into early next week Another upper air disturbance will cross the area Sunday into Sunday night with better rain chances with another weak cold front moving through the area by Sunday night into early Monday.

Partial clearing is expected in the wake of the front for the first half of next week with clouds and slim rain chances appearing back in the forecast by the mid part of next week as the next weather system approaches.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through the next seven days with my confidence reduced slightly with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties for today into tonight and again Sunday, Sunday night and into early Monday.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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