Updated 800am CT – Friday / 05 December 2014
…. Clouds and Warmer Temperatures ….
…. Lingering Rain Chances ….
On this Friday morning…. a surface warm front extends from a low pressure area over southeastern Colorado southeastward along the Red River and into southern Arkansas into northern Mississippi. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are south southeasterly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an upper level low pressure area is located over Hudson Bay in Canada with much of the USA in a rather zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind pattern. An upper air low pressure system is moving eastward through the eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are westerly 40 to 50 mph.
Warmer air continues to move northward across the area. Even so, abundant low level moisture and clouds will remain in place for the coming days. With the increasingly moist and slightly more unstable air mass, we will continue to see the chance of rain.. rain showers and even a thunderstorm or two for the next 24 hours or so as temperatures rebound back to slightly above seasonal levels.
Another weak cold frontal passage is seen by tonight into the predawn hours Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures into the weekend. While we may see a little sunshine on Saturday, overrunning moisture will continue with clouds persisting through much of weekend and into early next week Another upper air disturbance will cross the area Sunday into Sunday night with better rain chances with another weak cold front moving through the area by Sunday night into early Monday.
Partial clearing is expected in the wake of the front for the first half of next week with clouds and slim rain chances appearing back in the forecast by the mid part of next week as the next weather system approaches.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is high through the next seven days with my confidence reduced slightly with precipitation chances and timing being the uncertainties for today into tonight and again Sunday, Sunday night and into early Monday.
Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel