Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

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Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 04 March 2015

TODAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms as an arctic cold front passes in the early and mid afternoon hours. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 1/2 inch. Turning windy and much colder with highs in the 60s in the afternoon just prior to frontal passage with temperatures falling through the 40s in the mid and late afternoon to near 40 by the evening rush hour. Southerly wind shifting northerly 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts as the front passes.

TONIGHT…. Cloudy and windy with numerous patches of rain through the mid and late evening hours then becoming mixed with or turning to freezing rain and sleet after midnight and continuing through the overnight hours resulting in potential hazardous driving conditions especially in areas north of Austin. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 70% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average less than 1/4 inch. Ice accumulations of up to 1/10th inch. Low 30. Northerly wind 18 to 28 mph with some higher gusts.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of rain.. freezing rain.. and sleet before 12 noon.. a few snowflakes are possible. Decreasing clouds by mid and late afternoon. Possible hazardous driving conditions.. especially north of Austin.. in the morning. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 30% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average only a few hundredths of an inch. Total ice accumulations.. where it occurs.. 1/10th inch or less. Little or no snow/sleet accumulation. High 38. North northeasterly wind 10 to 20 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 27. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 44. Northeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Increasing clouds becoming mostly cloudy. Low 34. Light east northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy and a little warmer with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average trace amounts. High 48. Light easterly wind.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs, given a 20% chance of precipitation at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 39. Light wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy. High 57. Light southeasterly wind.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 44. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 60. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 46. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 64. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 11 March 2015 through Tuesday / 17 March 2015…
Temperature… Near Average
Precipitation… Near Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (04 March)………………………………………….. 6:53 am
Sunset this evening (04 March)……………………………………………. 6:32 pm
Sunrise Thursday (05 March)………………………………………………. 6:52 am
Sunset Thursday (05 March)……………………………………………….. 6:33 pm

…. Time Change Coming Up ….
Central Standard Time (CST) back to Central Daylight Time (CDT)
at 2am on Sunday, 8 March 2015 when you should turn clocks
up one hour to 3am (“spring forward”). We lose an hour that we’ll
gain back at 2am on Sunday, 1 November 2015 when we move
back our clocks again as we go back to central standard time (CST).

TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 04 March 2015

… Here Comes the Arctic Cold Front …
… Computer Models Trend A Little Warmer Temperature Wise …
… Possible Round of Wintry Precipitation Tonight into Thursday …

On this Wednesday morning…. a strong arctic cold front extends southwestward from western Arkansas and extreme southeastern Oklahoma into northern areas of central Texas then westward into west Texas and New Mexico. Temperatures, behind the front, have into the 20s and 30s over the Texas panhandle and Oklahoma. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable or light southeasterly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a deep upper level trough.. or line of low pressure southwestward from the western Great Lakes Across the central and southern Rockies and into southern Arizona and northwestern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 55 to 65 mph.

Dense fog and light drizzle and light rain continues over our area this morning as a south southeasterly surface wind flow tries to reestablish in advance of the arctic cold front to our north. Clouds are likely to linger along with good chances of rain showers and thunderstorms, with an attendant lightning risk, as the front approaches and then moves through the area early to mid afternoon.

With the passage of the arctic cold front, there will be a rapid drop in temperatures with temperatures in the 60s falling quickly through the 40s into the evening rush hour today. The latest numerical computer guidance suggests temperatures overnight tonight into early tomorrow /Thursday/ will not be as cold as I had earlier predicted with lows overnight closer to 30 to 31 degrees. In other words, once again, we find ourselves in the difficult forecast situation being that we will be sitting on the freezing line locally which will define exact precipitation types. In any case, an overrunning pattern will persist on top of the advancing shallow layer of arctic air with light precipitation likely later this afternoon through tonight with precipitation tapering off a bit during the morning and midday hours tomorrow. It is likely, given the very latest forecast guidance, that parts of our south central Texas area could see either a wintry mix or a changeover to freezing/frozen wintry precipitation tonight into midday Thursday with possible ice accumulations and associated hazardous driving conditions in some areas. All local interests should stay in close touch with the latest weather information from the National Weather Service through tomorrow.

It appears that the overrunning pattern, even with some breaks in the clouds late Thursday into Thursday night and Friday, will linger late week into the weekend as temperatures only slowly warm just as we saw this past weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is lowered to medium today through tomorrow (as it relates to the extent and intensity of freezing temperatures and associated precipitation types) then back up to high tomorrow night through Friday and the weekend as it regards the basic weather pattern and precipitation occurrence, timing and amounts. Although it is a little lower than yesterday, I continue to have low to medium confidence of some type of freezing/frozen precipitation tonight into tomorrow.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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