Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

… WINTER WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY …

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Statement #3
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
830am CT – Wednesday / 04 March 2015

…. Potential Winter Weather Event Tonight into Thursday Morning ….
…. Computer Models Trend Not Quite So Cold Tonight ….

NWS WATCHES / ADVISORIES / WARNINGS:
None at this time

SYNOPTIC/FORECAST REASONING:
Ahead of the arctic cold front.. that currently extends from southeastern Oklahoma
into north central Texas to the Waco area to north of San Angelo.. we’re seeing
dense fog and light rain with temperatures in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. The
arctic cold front will pass south southeastward through the Austin and south central
Texas area during the early to mid afternoon hours.

A couple of things I’m seeing this morning… (1) the coldest air is lagging behind the
front with the 20s and 30s hanging back over Oklahoma – this air isn’t as cold as I
thought it would be over Oklahoma this morning. (2) Computer models over the last
24 hours have trended¬† warmer locally tonight into¬† Thursday morning. In short, I’m
not as certain today of the temperatures being as cold as I’ve been advertising for
late tonight into early Thursday morning. That being said, please keep in mind that our
numerical forecast models have a tendency to be too slow with arctic frontal passages
and tend to underestimate the intensity of cold air in these type situations.. so we need
to continue to watch the situation.

I still expect to see the 50s and lower 60 degree temperatures today fall quickly
with the advancement of the cold front this afternoon. I now expect to temperatures
to fall through the 40s as we go into the afternoon/evening rush hour. Overnight, we’ll
see temperatures fall to closer to 30 degrees by daybreak Thursday.

As the relatively shallow arctic cold air slides southward over the area, several
upper air low pressure disturbances will move across the area tonight into Thursday.
This will produce an overrunning clouds and light precipitation which will
likely persist through Thursday. A mixed rain.. freezing/frozen winter precipitation
will likely occur over parts of south central Texas based on the latest guidance. Based
on what I’m seeing this morning, I’m thinking that we.. once again.. could find ourselves
not quite as cold and more on the border of the freezing temps and the areas where
potential ice could have an effect.

While we will likely see some breaks in the clouds by Thursday night into Friday, the
cloudy overrunning pattern is likely to kick back in by Friday night into the weekend
with temperatures only slowly warming.

All local interests across the area should stay in close touch with the latest south central
Texas forecast and weather information from the National Weather Service.

THREAT(S) FOR AUSTIN METRO AND IH35 CORRIDOR COUNTIES:
Low to moderate probability for a wintry precipitation mix (rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow)
Geographic area: IH35 Corridor Counties / Williamson, Travis, Hays
Time Period: 4pm Wednesday through 12 noon Thursday
Ice Accumulation: Possible with potential hazardous driving conditions 7pm Wed-1 pm Thu
Snow Accumulation: Little or none

MY FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Weather system evolution: High to Very High
Precipitation chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into early Thursday
Liquid precipitation (rain) chances: High Wednesday afternoon.. Wednesday night into early Thursday
Freezing precipitation (freezing rain/freezing drizzle) chances: Low to Moderate
Frozen precipitation (snow/ice pellets-sleet) chances: Low to Moderate
Thunderstorm/lightning chances: Moderate to high Wednesday to 4 pm
Severe thunderstorm chances: None

CALL TO ACTION:

Please remain “weather aware” and listen for the latest weather statements,
advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service.

Make sure that your NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is operational and are
set to alarm in case of severe and inclement weather watches and/or warnings.

FOLLOWUP STATEMENTS:

I will continue to keep you informed regarding this severe/inclement weather
event. Any questions, please let me know at tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu

tk