Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

troyk

TK’s Austin and South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by

Updated 845am CT.. Wednesday / 18 March 2015

TODAY…. Cloudy with numerous rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 72. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average trace amounts. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY…. Partly to mostly cloudy with widely scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. High 76. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 40% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 62. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY…. Cloudy and turning cooler as a cold front passes by midday. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Periods of heavier rain possible. Rainfall, given an 70% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. High 68. Southerly wind shifting north northwesterly 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. Cloudy with rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Rainfall, given an 80% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/2 to 1 inch. Low 53. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SATURDAY…. Mostly cloudy with numerous patches of rain and isolated thunderstorms. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 to 3/4 inch. High 66. North northeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. Mostly cloudy with scattered patches of rain. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 60% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/10th inch or less. Low 50. Light easterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 69. East southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy. Low 51. Light easterly wind.

MONDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 71. Light south southeasterly wind.

MONDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers as a cold front passes. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 20% chance of rain at any given location, will average less than 1/4 inch. Low 56. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph shifting northerly.

TUESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 65. Northerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Wednesday / 25 March 2015 through Tuesday / 31 March 2015…
Temperature… Below Average
Precipitation… Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (18 March)…………………………………………. 7:37 am
Sunset this evening (18 March)…………………………………………… 7:41 pm
Sunrise Thursday (19 March)……………………………………………… 7:36 am
Sunset Thursday (19 March)………………………………………………. 7:42 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by

Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 March 2015

.. Low Pressure Storm Systems Crosses Overhead ..
.. Second Weather System Passes Late Tomorrow into Saturday ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Decrease Tonight.. Return Tomorrow Night..
.. Two or More Inches of Rainfall Possible Late Week ..

On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from Alabama and Mississippi westward across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into north and central Texas then northwestward into west Texas and New Mexico and western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over central and west Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southerly at 50 to 60 mph.

The upper level low pressure area is creating abundant atmospheric lift over the area with widespread precipitation.

The upper air disturbance will move east of the area by tonight with precipitation decreasing although clouds are expected to hold across the area.

Another strong upper level disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weak cold front will result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances by late tomorrow into Saturday with the clouds and rain chances extending into the weekend as well. Another couple inches of rain is possible with this weather system as it passes overhead.

Clouds will break a bit Sunday into Monday with another cold front and slim rain chances by late Monday into Monday night.

Temperatures will be at or slightly above average over the next few days with temperatures cooling a bit to below average Friday with a cold front before returning to near average by late in the weekend. Temperatures will cool again by Tuesday with that next cold front.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the exact probability for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.

Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel