Updated 915am CT – Wednesday / 18 March 2015
.. Low Pressure Storm Systems Crosses Overhead ..
.. Second Weather System Passes Late Tomorrow into Saturday ..
.. Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Decrease Tonight.. Return Tomorrow Night..
.. Two or More Inches of Rainfall Possible Late Week ..
On this Wednesday morning…. a weakening cold front extends from Alabama and Mississippi westward across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana into north and central Texas then northwestward into west Texas and New Mexico and western Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are southerly.
In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a strong upper level low pressure disturbance is over central and west Texas. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southerly at 50 to 60 mph.
The upper level low pressure area is creating abundant atmospheric lift over the area with widespread precipitation.
The upper air disturbance will move east of the area by tonight with precipitation decreasing although clouds are expected to hold across the area.
Another strong upper level disturbance combined with a southeastward moving weak cold front will result in renewed rain and thunderstorm chances by late tomorrow into Saturday with the clouds and rain chances extending into the weekend as well. Another couple inches of rain is possible with this weather system as it passes overhead.
Clouds will break a bit Sunday into Monday with another cold front and slim rain chances by late Monday into Monday night.
Temperatures will be at or slightly above average over the next few days with temperatures cooling a bit to below average Friday with a cold front before returning to near average by late in the weekend. Temperatures will cool again by Tuesday with that next cold front.
Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is medium to high through the week and into the weekend. The main questions will be the exact probability for rain as well as precipitation timing and amounts.
Have a good Wednesday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
Contact me:
tkimmel@austin.utexas.edu
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel