Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

troyk

TK’s Austin/South Central Texas Weather Forecast….

by

Updated 845am CT.. Monday / 23 March 2015

TODAY…. Mostly sunny. High 79. South southeasterly wind 4 to 8 mph.

TONIGHT…. Mostly clear. Low 57. Light southeasterly wind.

TUESDAY…. Patchy early morning fog.. otherwise mostly sunny. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear through midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Low 59. South southeasterly wind 5 to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY…. Partly cloudy. High 81. Southerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT…. Partly cloudy until midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms possible after 2am with the approach of a cold front. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Low 61. South southeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph becoming more southwesterly after midnight.

THURSDAY…. Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms through 9am as a cold front passes the area. Rainfall, where it occurs given a 30% chance of rain at any given location, will average 1/4 inch or less. Decreasing clouds by mid and late morning becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Cooler. High 69. Southwesterly wind becoming northwesterly 8 to 15 mph as the front passes.

THURSDAY NIGHT…. Mostly clear and cooler. Low 48. North northwesterly wind 8 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY…. Sunshine. High 68. Northerly wind 5 to 12 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 46. Light north northeasterly wind.

SATURDAY…. Sunshine. High 69. Northeasterly wind 5 to 12 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT…. A clear sky. Low 48. Light northeasterly wind.

SUNDAY…. Mostly sunny. High 71. Easterly wind becoming southeasterly 5 to 12 mph by afternoon.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
Valid Monday / 30 March 2015 through Sunday / 05 April 2015…
Temperature… Near to Slightly Below Average
Precipitation… Near to Slightly Below Average

AUSTIN SUNSET/SUNRISE TIMES…..
Sunrise this morning (23 March)…………………………………………. 7:31 am
Sunset this evening (23 March)…………………………………………… 7:44 pm
Sunrise Tuesday (24 March)………………………………………………. 7:30 am
Sunset Tuesday (24 March)……………………………………………….. 7:45 pm

TK’s Weather Discussion….

by

Updated 915am CT – Monday / 23 March 2015

.. Dry.. Stable and Warmer Weather Pattern to Start the New Week ..
.. Another Cold Front with Rain Chances Wednesday Night into Thursday ..
.. Sunshine and Cooler Temperatures Late Week into the Weekend ..

On this Monday morning…. a surface high pressure area is over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma. A weak cold front stretches from a low pressure area over northern Missouri and southern Iowa into southeastern Kansas northwest Oklahoma.. the northern Texas panhandle.. then west northwestward through northeastern New Mexico back into Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern, our local surface winds are light and variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. a general zonal (west-to-east) upper level wind flow holds across the USA with a weak trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure extending southward over the eastern part of the country with another extending southward along the west coast. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are northwesterly at 25 to 35 mph.

After a cloudy and relatively wet Friday and weekend.. it looks like a dry.. stable and more springlike warmer weather pattern for the first half of our new week.

With a return south southeasterly surface wind flow, along with the sunshine, I expect that temperatures will be warming to well above seasonal averages over the next few days.

Another cold front is due late Wednesday night into the daybreak hours on Thursday. Widely scattered to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may develop along and ahead of the front but the precipitation chances will decrease rapidly by mid morning Thursday as the front departs to the southeast.

Cooler and drier air.. with abundant sunshine.. will prevail Thursday and Friday and into the weekend.

Regarding my forecast, my local forecast confidence: My forecast confidence is very high through Wednesday. My forecast confidence, with the approaching cold front and rain chances, is high for Wednesday night into early Thursday (exact probability of rain, precipitation timing and amounts being the issue). My forecast confidence Thursday through Friday and the weekend once again goes to back to very high.

Have a good Monday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

Contact me:
[email protected]
http://www.facebook.com/troykimmel