Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

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TK’s Weather Discussion….

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Updated 915am CT – Friday / 24 April 2015

.. One Passing Low Pressure Disturbance with Rain this Morning ..
.. Another Wave of Thunderstorm Later This Afternoon into Tonight ..
.. Drier Air with a Little More Sunshine for the Weekend ..

On this Friday…. a northward moving warm front extends northwestward from east Texas into western Oklahoma and the northeastern Texas panhandle into a surfacelow pressure area over southeastern Colorado. As a result of this surface weather pattern and morning thunderstorms, our local surface winds are variable.

In the upper levels of the atmosphere.. an eastward moving upper level low pressure disturbance is over the southwestern USA into northern Mexico. As a result, our upper air winds at about 18,500 feet are southwesterly at 60 to 70 mph.

After one wave of overnight rain showers and thunderstorms, which produced less than an inch of rain in the Austin area proper, we’re going to see a break in the weather into the afternoon with sunshine and warming temperatures.

BY later this afternoon into tonight, the main trough.. or line.. of upper level low pressure, to our west, will move northeastward across our area. As a result of increased upward motion in the atmosphere along with a more moist and unstable air mass will bring us increased thunderstorms chances with the possibility of severe thunderstorms.. potentially producing larger hail and damaging thunderstorm winds. In addition, the latest NWS rainfall forecast guidance now shows the potential of an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between now and early tomorrow.

A drier and more stable air mass return tomorrow into Sunday with more sunshine expected.

Another approaching front along with a passing upper air low pressure disturbance will result in the return of rain and thunderstorm chances to the forecast by Sunday night into Monday. Early indications suggest the possibility of severe thunderstorms again.

Have a good Friday….
Meteorologist Troy Kimmel

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TK’s Special Briefing…. (835pm CT-Thu/23Apr2015)

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Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #6
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
835pm CT – Thursday / 23 April 2015

…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Williamson County Canceled ….

As we retire for the evening, everything looks quiet across the area with a few
thunderstorms northwest of Fort Hood in Bell County to our north.

As the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has pointed out tonight, the models have had
a tough time resolving thunderstorm occurrence across the area today.

The latest high resolution (and short terms) models are indicating an upper
air low pressure disturbance.. over northern Mexico.. will traverse the area
overnight into the morning rush hour Friday. As it does, the atmospheric lift
will increase with a moist and fairly unstable air mass in place. Both of the
models that I’m looking at suggests that an area of rain showers and
thunderstorms will develop in the next few hours to our west and
southwest and overspread the area by 2 to 4 am tomorrow morning and
continue through the morning rush hour.

We continue to be in a “marginal” NWS severe weather risk area through
7am tomorrow then a “slight” NWS severe weather risk area 7am tomorrow
into tomorrow night.

I will continue to monitor..
tk