Troy Kimmel Weather

Forecasting Austin and South Central Texas Weather Since 1984

TK’s Special Briefing…. (835pm CT-Thu/23Apr2015)

Austin / Travis County and South Central Texas Weather Update #6
Prepared by UT University/Incident Meteorologist Troy Kimmel
835pm CT – Thursday / 23 April 2015

…. Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Williamson County Canceled ….

As we retire for the evening, everything looks quiet across the area with a few
thunderstorms northwest of Fort Hood in Bell County to our north.

As the NWS/Austin-San Antonio has pointed out tonight, the models have had
a tough time resolving thunderstorm occurrence across the area today.

The latest high resolution (and short terms) models are indicating an upper
air low pressure disturbance.. over northern Mexico.. will traverse the area
overnight into the morning rush hour Friday. As it does, the atmospheric lift
will increase with a moist and fairly unstable air mass in place. Both of the
models that I’m looking at suggests that an area of rain showers and
thunderstorms will develop in the next few hours to our west and
southwest and overspread the area by 2 to 4 am tomorrow morning and
continue through the morning rush hour.

We continue to be in a “marginal” NWS severe weather risk area through
7am tomorrow then a “slight” NWS severe weather risk area 7am tomorrow
into tomorrow night.

I will continue to monitor..